What markets are included in the Fiorentina vs AC Milan prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Fiorentina vs AC Milan prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Fiorentina vs AC Milan

Fiorentina vs AC Milan prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

Serie A 2026-01-11 14:00

Fiorentina

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

49%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

AC Milan

Away

Prediction Summary

25%

50%

Under 2.5

51%

BTTS Yes

51%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Fiorentina (Home)

Goals scored / match1.11

Goals conceded / match1.11

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate63%

AC Milan (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47

Goals conceded / match0.74

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Fiorentina

DWDLD

AC Milan

LWLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 79%

16% +1.5 47%

5% +2.5 21%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

63% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Fiorentina averages 1.11 goals scored at home, while AC Milan averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength

51%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

25%

Draw

25%

Away Win

50%

Over 2.5

49%

BTTS Yes

51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Fiorentina 1 - 1 AC Milan Draw

Oct 2025 Fiorentina(A) 1 - 2 AC Milan Away

Apr 2025 Fiorentina(A) 2 - 2 AC Milan Draw

Oct 2024 Fiorentina 2 - 1 AC Milan Home

Mar 2024 Fiorentina 1 - 2 AC Milan Away

In the last 5 meetings, Fiorentina won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Fiorentina — unbeaten run (home)8

Fiorentina — scoring streak (home)1

AC Milan — winless run (away)0

AC Milan — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Fiorentina Win (1)25%

Draw (X)25%

AC Milan Win (2)50%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 79%

16% +1.5 47%

5% +2.5 21%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 21%

84% -1.5 53%

95% -2.5 79%

95% -3.5 100%

95% -4.5 100%

Fiorentina vs AC Milan — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Fiorentina — scored (home)1.11

Fiorentina — conceded (home)1.11

AC Milan — scored (away)1.47

AC Milan — conceded (away)0.74

Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%

No49%

Rate per Team

Fiorentina — BTTS matches (home)63%

AC Milan — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.579%

Under 6.521%

Over 7.564%

Under 7.536%

Over 8.548%

Under 8.552%

Over 9.545%

Under 9.555%

Over 10.534%

Under 10.566%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Fiorentina (home)

Corners for5.5

Corners against4.0

AC Milan (away)

Corners for3.6

Corners against4.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Fiorentina

11 9 7 8 6

AC Milan

4 5 4 8 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.589%

Under 1.511%

Over 2.571%

Under 2.529%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Fiorentina (home)

For2.4

AC Milan (away)

For1.5

Shots per Game

Fiorentina — total shots (home)15.7

AC Milan — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Fiorentina — on target (home)4.1

AC Milan — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Fiorentina

Inside the box8.05

Outside the box4.82

AC Milan

Inside the box9.16

Outside the box4.08

Player Shots Fiorentina

M. Kean

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target27%

R. Mandragora

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target3%

R. Piccoli

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target9%

A. Guðmundsson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target9%

F. Parisi

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots AC Milan

C. Pulišić

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rafael Leão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target24%

S. Giménez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target13%

Y. Fofana

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target0%

C. Nkunku

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Fiorentina xG (home)1.4

AC Milan xG (away)1.59

Average Possession

50.97% Possession 51.84%

Team Comparison Fiorentina vs AC Milan

83.89% Pass accuracy 86.74%

423.61 Passes per match 483.74

0.06 Goals prevented 0.2

12.5 Fouls committed 10.11

3.34 Goalkeeper saves 2.95

1.94 Offsides 1.92

12.26 Tackles per match 14.5

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Fiorentina vs AC Milan prediction analysis

Review Fiorentina vs AC Milan with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights