Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Fiorentina vs Frosinone

Fiorentina vs Frosinone prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2026-08-30 16:30
Fiorentina
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Frosinone
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
26%
2
24%
+2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS
49%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Fiorentina (Home)

Goals scored / match1.11
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate63%

Frosinone (Away)

Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%

Team Form last 5 matches

Fiorentina
DWDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 0%
16% +1.5 0%
5% +2.5 0%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
63% BTTS 0%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Fiorentina averages 1.11 goals scored at home, while Frosinone averages 0 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
26%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 2

Feb 2024 Fiorentina 5 - 1 Frosinone Home
Sep 2023 Fiorentina(A) 1 - 1 Frosinone Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Fiorentina won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Fiorentina — unbeaten run (home)8
Fiorentina — scoring streak (home)1

1X2 Probability model

Fiorentina Win (1)50%
Draw (X)26%
Frosinone Win (2)24%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 0%
16% +1.5 0%
5% +2.5 0%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 100%
84% -1.5 100%
95% -2.5 100%
95% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Fiorentina vs Frosinone — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Fiorentina — scored (home)1.11
Fiorentina — conceded (home)1.11
Frosinone — scored (away)0
Frosinone — conceded (away)0
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

Fiorentina — BTTS matches (home)63%
Frosinone — BTTS matches (away)0%
Combined (simple average)31.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Fiorentina (home)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.0

Frosinone (away)

Corners for—
Corners against—

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Fiorentina
11 9 7 8 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.545%
Under 0.555%
Over 1.545%
Under 1.555%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Fiorentina (home)

For2.4

Frosinone (away)

For—

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.559%
Under 22.541%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.30

Fiorentina

Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.566%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.28
On Target Over 3.563%
On Target Over 4.546%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.56

Frosinone

Shots Over 9.559%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.02
On Target Over 3.548%
On Target Over 4.531%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.66

Shots per Game

Fiorentina — total shots (home)15.7
Frosinone — total shots (away)—

Shots on Target

Fiorentina — on target (home)4.1
Frosinone — on target (away)—

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Fiorentina

Inside the box8.05
Outside the box4.82

Frosinone

Inside the box-
Outside the box-

Player Shots Fiorentina

M. Kean
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target27%
R. Mandragora
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target3%
R. Piccoli
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Guðmundsson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target9%
F. Parisi
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Frosinone

Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Fiorentina xG (home)1.4
Frosinone xG (away)-

Average Possession

50.97% Possession -%

Team Comparison Fiorentina vs Frosinone

83.89% Pass accuracy 0%
423.61 Passes per match -
0.06 Goals prevented -
12.5 Fouls committed -
3.34 Goalkeeper saves -
1.94 Offsides -
12.26 Tackles per match -

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Fiorentina vs Frosinone prediction analysis

Review Fiorentina vs Frosinone with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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