Prediction Analysis: Fiorentina vs Napoli
Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-09-20
16:30
Fiorentina
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
39%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Napoli
Away
Prediction Summary
1
31%
X
29%
2
40%
+2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS
45%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Fiorentina (Home)
Goals scored / match1.11
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate63%
Napoli (Away)
Goals scored / match1.32
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate37%
Team Form last 5 matches
Fiorentina
DWDLD
Napoli
WWLDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
79%
+0.5
74%
16%
+1.5
42%
5%
+2.5
16%
5%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
63%
BTTS
37%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 39%. Model confidence is Medium.
Fiorentina averages 1.11 goals scored at home, while Napoli averages 1.32 goals scored away.
Model Strength
61%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
31%
Draw
29%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
Fiorentina(A)
1 - 2
Napoli
Away
Sep 2025
Fiorentina
1 - 3
Napoli
Away
Mar 2025
Fiorentina(A)
1 - 2
Napoli
Away
Jan 2025
Fiorentina
0 - 3
Napoli
Away
May 2024
Fiorentina
2 - 2
Napoli
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Fiorentina won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
Fiorentina — unbeaten run (home)8
Fiorentina — scoring streak (home)1
Napoli — winless run (away)0
Napoli — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Fiorentina Win (1)31%
Draw (X)29%
Napoli Win (2)40%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
79%
+0.5
74%
16%
+1.5
42%
5%
+2.5
16%
5%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
21%
-0.5
26%
84%
-1.5
58%
95%
-2.5
84%
95%
-3.5
100%
95%
-4.5
100%
Fiorentina vs Napoli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Fiorentina — scored (home)1.11
Fiorentina — conceded (home)1.11
Napoli — scored (away)1.32
Napoli — conceded (away)0.95
Model expected combined goals2.24
Both Teams To Score
Yes45%
No55%
Rate per Team
Fiorentina — BTTS matches (home)63%
Napoli — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)50%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Fiorentina (home)
Corners for5.5
Corners against4.0
Napoli (away)
Corners for4.7
Corners against2.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Fiorentina
11
9
7
8
6
Napoli
12
5
8
7
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Fiorentina (home)
For2.4
Napoli (away)
For1.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.568%
Under 19.532%
Over 22.554%
Under 22.546%
Over 25.540%
Under 25.560%
Expected total shots24.07
Fiorentina
Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.555%
Shots Over 13.540%
Expected shots12.70
On Target Over 3.554%
On Target Over 4.537%
On Target Over 5.523%
Expected on target3.98
Napoli
Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.545%
Shots Over 13.530%
Expected shots11.37
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.534%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.82
Shots per Game
Fiorentina — total shots (home)15.7
Napoli — total shots (away)12.6
Shots on Target
Fiorentina — on target (home)4.1
Napoli — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Fiorentina
Inside the box8.05
Outside the box4.82
Napoli
Inside the box8.47
Outside the box4.74
Player Shots Fiorentina
M. Kean
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target27%
R. Mandragora
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target3%
R. Piccoli
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Guðmundsson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target9%
F. Parisi
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots Napoli
Alisson Santos
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target43%
S. McTominay
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target30%
R. Højlund
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target21%
K. De Bruyne
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Zambo Anguissa
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Fiorentina xG (home)1.4
Napoli xG (away)1.35
Average Possession
50.97%
Possession
58.87%
Team Comparison Fiorentina vs Napoli
83.89%
Pass accuracy
86.66%
423.61
Passes per match
556.63
0.06
Goals prevented
-0.18
12.5
Fouls committed
11.18
3.34
Goalkeeper saves
2.03
1.94
Offsides
1.7
12.26
Tackles per match
12.16
League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction analysis
Review Fiorentina vs Napoli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights