What markets are included in the Flamengo vs Sao Paulo prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Flamengo vs Sao Paulo prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo

Flamengo vs Sao Paulo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

Serie A 2026-07-26 21:30

Flamengo

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

49%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Sao Paulo

Away

Prediction Summary

70%

20%

11%

Under 2.5

51%

BTTS No

60%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Flamengo (Home)

Goals scored / match2.42

Goals conceded / match0.42

Over 2.5 rate42%

BTTS rate32%

Sao Paulo (Away)

Goals scored / match0.84

Goals conceded / match1.58

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Flamengo

WDWDW

Sao Paulo

LLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 53%

53% +1.5 32%

42% +2.5 0%

21% +3.5 0%

16% +4.5 0%

32% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Medium.

Flamengo averages 2.42 goals scored at home, while Sao Paulo averages 0.84 goals scored away.

Model Strength

70%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

70%

Draw

20%

Away Win

11%

Over 2.5

49%

BTTS Yes

40%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Flamengo(A) 2 - 2 Sao Paulo Draw

Jul 2025 Flamengo 2 - 0 Sao Paulo Home

Aug 2024 Flamengo(A) 0 - 1 Sao Paulo Away

Apr 2024 Flamengo 2 - 1 Sao Paulo Home

Dec 2023 Flamengo(A) 0 - 1 Sao Paulo Away

In the last 5 meetings, Flamengo won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Flamengo — unbeaten run (home)19

Flamengo — scoring streak (home)5

Sao Paulo — winless run (away)3

Sao Paulo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Flamengo Win (1)70%

Draw (X)20%

Sao Paulo Win (2)11%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 53%

53% +1.5 32%

42% +2.5 0%

21% +3.5 0%

16% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 47%

47% -1.5 68%

58% -2.5 100%

79% -3.5 100%

84% -4.5 100%

Flamengo vs Sao Paulo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Flamengo — scored (home)2.42

Flamengo — conceded (home)0.42

Sao Paulo — scored (away)0.84

Sao Paulo — conceded (away)1.58

Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes40%

No60%

Rate per Team

Flamengo — BTTS matches (home)32%

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (away)37%

Combined (simple average)34.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%

Under 8.537%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.543%

Under 10.557%

Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Flamengo (home)

Corners for6.6

Corners against3.8

Sao Paulo (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against6.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Flamengo

Sao Paulo

11 7 13 12 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.582%

Under 2.518%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Flamengo (home)

For1.9

Sao Paulo (away)

For2.2

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.578%

Under 19.522%

Over 22.564%

Under 22.536%

Over 25.549%

Under 25.551%

Expected total shots26.11

Flamengo

Shots Over 9.587%

Shots Over 11.575%

Shots Over 13.561%

Expected shots15.54

On Target Over 3.576%

On Target Over 4.561%

On Target Over 5.545%

Expected on target5.45

Sao Paulo

Shots Over 9.557%

Shots Over 11.538%

Shots Over 13.523%

Expected shots10.57

On Target Over 3.545%

On Target Over 4.527%

On Target Over 5.515%

Expected on target3.45

Shots per Game

Flamengo — total shots (home)17.1

Sao Paulo — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Flamengo — on target (home)6.2

Sao Paulo — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Flamengo

Inside the box9.92

Outside the box5.55

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Player Shots Flamengo

Pedro

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target41%

G. de Arrascaeta

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target59%

+1.5 On Target12%

Bruno Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target18%

Samuel Lino

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target9%

Luiz Araújo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target34%

+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target18%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target3%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Flamengo xG (home)1.63

Sao Paulo xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

62.08% Possession 52.13%

Team Comparison Flamengo vs Sao Paulo

88.34% Pass accuracy 83.71%

562.39 Passes per match 438.63

-0.02 Goals prevented 0.21

13.42 Fouls committed 14.24

2.5 Goalkeeper saves 3.21

1.24 Offsides 1.47

15.15 Tackles per match 17.31

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Flamengo vs Sao Paulo prediction analysis

Review Flamengo vs Sao Paulo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights