Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Flamengo vs Sport Recife

Flamengo vs Sport Recife prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-02 00:00
Flamengo
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
High
Score
2-0
Sport Recife
Away

Prediction Summary

1
74%
X
18%
2
8%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS No
66%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Flamengo (Home)

Goals scored / match2.42
Goals conceded / match0.42
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate32%

Sport Recife (Away)

Goals scored / match0.58
Goals conceded / match1.89
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Flamengo
DWDWL
Sport Recife
LLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 47%
53% +1.5 11%
42% +2.5 0%
21% +3.5 0%
16% +4.5 0%
32% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is High.

Flamengo averages 2.42 goals scored at home, while Sport Recife averages 0.58 goals scored away.

Model Strength
74%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
74%
Draw
18%
Away Win
8%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
34%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Flamengo(A) 5 - 1 Sport Recife Home
Nov 2025 Flamengo 3 - 0 Sport Recife Home
Dec 2021 Flamengo(A) 1 - 1 Sport Recife Draw
Aug 2021 Flamengo 2 - 0 Sport Recife Home
Feb 2021 Flamengo(A) 3 - 0 Sport Recife Home

In the last 5 meetings, Flamengo won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Flamengo — unbeaten run (home)19
Flamengo — scoring streak (home)5
Sport Recife — winless run (away)10
Sport Recife — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Flamengo Win (1)74%
Draw (X)18%
Sport Recife Win (2)8%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 47%
53% +1.5 11%
42% +2.5 0%
21% +3.5 0%
16% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 53%
47% -1.5 89%
58% -2.5 100%
79% -3.5 100%
84% -4.5 100%

Flamengo vs Sport Recife — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Flamengo — scored (home)2.42
Flamengo — conceded (home)0.42
Sport Recife — scored (away)0.58
Sport Recife — conceded (away)1.89
Model expected combined goals2.53

Both Teams To Score

Yes34%
No66%

Rate per Team

Flamengo — BTTS matches (home)32%
Sport Recife — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)37%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.585%
Under 7.515%
Over 8.576%
Under 8.524%
Over 9.558%
Under 9.542%
Over 10.548%
Under 10.552%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Flamengo (home)

Corners for6.6
Corners against3.8

Sport Recife (away)

Corners for5.6
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Flamengo
8 10 6 7 5
Sport Recife
12 10 12 8 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Flamengo (home)

For1.9

Sport Recife (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Flamengo — total shots (home)17.1
Sport Recife — total shots (away)12.7

Shots on Target

Flamengo — on target (home)6.2
Sport Recife — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Flamengo

Inside the box9.92
Outside the box5.55

Sport Recife

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box4.95

Player Shots Flamengo

Pedro
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target38%
G. de Arrascaeta
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target12%
Bruno Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
Samuel Lino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target10%
Luiz Araújo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Sport Recife

Derik Lacerda
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target35%
Léo Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target25%
Chrystian Barletta
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
C. Ortíz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
I. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Flamengo xG (home)1.63
Sport Recife xG (away)0.97

Average Possession

62.08% Possession 46.24%

Team Comparison Flamengo vs Sport Recife

88.34% Pass accuracy 81.37%
562.39 Passes per match 375.95
-0.02 Goals prevented 0.15
13.42 Fouls committed 13.63
2.5 Goalkeeper saves 4.13
1.24 Offsides 1.84
15.21 Tackles per match 15.18

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Flamengo vs Sport Recife prediction analysis

Review Flamengo vs Sport Recife with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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