Prediction Analysis: Flamengo vs Vitoria
Flamengo vs Vitoria prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-08-09
22:30
Flamengo
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Flamengo
Probability
73%
Confidence
High
Score
2-0
Vitoria
Away
Prediction Summary
1
73%
X
18%
2
9%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS No
62%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Flamengo (Home)
Goals scored / match2.35
Goals conceded / match0.45
Over 2.5 rate40%
BTTS rate35%
Vitoria (Away)
Goals scored / match0.7
Goals conceded / match1.85
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate40%
Team Form last 5 matches
Flamengo
DWDWD
Vitoria
DWWLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
90%
+0.5
45%
50%
+1.5
15%
40%
+2.5
10%
20%
+3.5
0%
15%
+4.5
0%
35%
BTTS
40%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 73%. Model confidence is High.
Flamengo averages 2.35 goals scored at home, while Vitoria averages 0.7 goals scored away.
Model Strength
73%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
73%
Draw
18%
Away Win
9%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
38%
Head-to-Head last 4
Aug 2025
Flamengo
8 - 0
Vitoria
Home
Apr 2025
Flamengo(A)
2 - 1
Vitoria
Home
Dec 2024
Flamengo
2 - 2
Vitoria
Draw
Jul 2024
Flamengo(A)
2 - 1
Vitoria
Home
In the last 4 meetings, Flamengo won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Flamengo — unbeaten run (home)20
Flamengo — scoring streak (home)6
Vitoria — winless run (away)2
Vitoria — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Flamengo Win (1)73%
Draw (X)18%
Vitoria Win (2)9%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
90%
+0.5
45%
50%
+1.5
15%
40%
+2.5
10%
20%
+3.5
0%
15%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
10%
-0.5
55%
50%
-1.5
85%
60%
-2.5
90%
80%
-3.5
100%
85%
-4.5
100%
Flamengo vs Vitoria — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Flamengo — scored (home)2.35
Flamengo — conceded (home)0.45
Vitoria — scored (away)0.7
Vitoria — conceded (away)1.85
Model expected combined goals2.68
Both Teams To Score
Yes38%
No62%
Rate per Team
Flamengo — BTTS matches (home)35%
Vitoria — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)37.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Flamengo (home)
Corners for6.6
Corners against3.8
Vitoria (away)
Corners for3.4
Corners against5.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Flamengo
6
7
5
8
1
Vitoria
12
5
12
5
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.590%
Under 0.510%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3
Yellow Cards per Team
Flamengo (home)
For1.9
Vitoria (away)
For3.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.549%
Under 25.551%
Expected total shots26.11
Flamengo
Shots Over 9.588%
Shots Over 11.578%
Shots Over 13.564%
Expected shots15.97
On Target Over 3.577%
On Target Over 4.562%
On Target Over 5.547%
Expected on target5.57
Vitoria
Shots Over 9.553%
Shots Over 11.534%
Shots Over 13.520%
Expected shots10.14
On Target Over 3.545%
On Target Over 4.528%
On Target Over 5.515%
Expected on target3.48
Shots per Game
Flamengo — total shots (home)17.1
Vitoria — total shots (away)9.4
Shots on Target
Flamengo — on target (home)6.2
Vitoria — on target (away)3.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Flamengo
Inside the box9.92
Outside the box5.55
Vitoria
Inside the box6.95
Outside the box4.61
Player Shots Flamengo
Pedro
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target39%
G. de Arrascaeta
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target12%
Bruno Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
Samuel Lino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target9%
Luiz Araújo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Vitoria
Renato Kayzer
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target19%
Wellington Rato
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Matheuzinho
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target10%
Aitor Cantalapiedra
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
Erick
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target6%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo xG (home)1.63
Vitoria xG (away)1.12
Average Possession
62.08%
Possession
41.26%
Team Comparison Flamengo vs Vitoria
88.34%
Pass accuracy
78.61%
562.39
Passes per match
324.47
-0.02
Goals prevented
-0.04
13.42
Fouls committed
14.61
2.5
Goalkeeper saves
3.92
1.24
Offsides
1.83
14.93
Tackles per match
15.2
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Flamengo vs Vitoria prediction and preview
Preview Flamengo vs Vitoria with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights