Prediction Analysis: Fluminense vs Bahia
Fluminense vs Bahia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-07-30
00:30
Fluminense
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Fluminense
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Bahia
Away
Prediction Summary
1
58%
X
25%
2
17%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS No
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Fluminense (Home)
Goals scored / match1.6
Goals conceded / match0.6
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate40%
Bahia (Away)
Goals scored / match0.9
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate55%
Team Form last 5 matches
Fluminense
DWWWD
Bahia
DWLWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
90%
+0.5
65%
45%
+1.5
20%
10%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
40%
BTTS
55%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
Fluminense averages 1.6 goals scored at home, while Bahia averages 0.9 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
58%
Draw
25%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jul 2026
Fluminense
2 - 0
Bahia
Home
Dec 2025
Fluminense
2 - 0
Bahia
Home
Sep 2025
Fluminense
2 - 0
Bahia
Home
Aug 2025
Fluminense(A)
0 - 1
Bahia
Away
Aug 2025
Fluminense(A)
3 - 3
Bahia
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Fluminense won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Fluminense — unbeaten run (home)10
Fluminense — scoring streak (home)10
Bahia — winless run (away)11
Bahia — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Fluminense Win (1)58%
Draw (X)25%
Bahia Win (2)17%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
90%
+0.5
65%
45%
+1.5
20%
10%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
10%
-0.5
35%
55%
-1.5
80%
90%
-2.5
95%
95%
-3.5
100%
95%
-4.5
100%
Fluminense vs Bahia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Fluminense — scored (home)1.6
Fluminense — conceded (home)0.6
Bahia — scored (away)0.9
Bahia — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals2.38
Both Teams To Score
Yes42%
No58%
Rate per Team
Fluminense — BTTS matches (home)40%
Bahia — BTTS matches (away)55%
Combined (simple average)47.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Fluminense (home)
Corners for5.4
Corners against3.6
Bahia (away)
Corners for4.2
Corners against6.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Fluminense
13
7
10
9
15
Bahia
12
11
8
9
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5
Yellow Cards per Team
Fluminense (home)
For1.9
Bahia (away)
For2.5
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.549%
Under 25.551%
Expected total shots25.95
Fluminense
Shots Over 9.585%
Shots Over 11.572%
Shots Over 13.558%
Expected shots15.01
On Target Over 3.572%
On Target Over 4.556%
On Target Over 5.541%
Expected on target5.14
Bahia
Shots Over 9.560%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.526%
Expected shots10.94
On Target Over 3.547%
On Target Over 4.530%
On Target Over 5.517%
Expected on target3.59
Shots per Game
Fluminense — total shots (home)14.6
Bahia — total shots (away)11.8
Shots on Target
Fluminense — on target (home)4.8
Bahia — on target (away)3.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Fluminense
Inside the box7.53
Outside the box4.74
Bahia
Inside the box8.42
Outside the box5.45
Player Shots Fluminense
K. Serna
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target9%
G. Cano
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Canobbio
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Acosta
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
John Kennedy
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Bahia
Willian José
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target18%
Erick Pulga
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target22%
Ademir
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
Rodrigo Nestor
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target9%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Fluminense xG (home)1.12
Bahia xG (away)1.37
Average Possession
52.92%
Possession
55.26%
Team Comparison Fluminense vs Bahia
84.87%
Pass accuracy
85.92%
468.34
Passes per match
468.39
-0.1
Goals prevented
-0.11
12.84
Fouls committed
12.32
2.51
Goalkeeper saves
2.92
0.94
Offsides
1.25
14.87
Tackles per match
15.79
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Fluminense vs Bahia prediction analysis
Review Fluminense vs Bahia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights