Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Fluminense vs Mirassol

Fluminense vs Mirassol prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-06 22:30
Fluminense
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
38%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Mirassol
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
29%
2
27%
Under 2.5
62%
BTTS No
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Fluminense (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.58
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate37%

Mirassol (Away)

Goals scored / match1.11
Goals conceded / match1.16
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Fluminense
WWWDW
Mirassol
DWLWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 74%
47% +1.5 32%
11% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
37% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 38%. Model confidence is Medium.

Fluminense averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Mirassol averages 1.11 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
29%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
38%
BTTS Yes
44%

Head-to-Head last 2

Nov 2025 Fluminense 1 - 0 Mirassol Home
Oct 2025 Fluminense(A) 1 - 2 Mirassol Away

In the last 2 meetings, Fluminense won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Fluminense — unbeaten run (home)9
Fluminense — scoring streak (home)9
Mirassol — winless run (away)0
Mirassol — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Fluminense Win (1)44%
Draw (X)29%
Mirassol Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 74%
47% +1.5 32%
11% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 26%
53% -1.5 68%
89% -2.5 95%
95% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Fluminense vs Mirassol — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Fluminense — scored (home)1.63
Fluminense — conceded (home)0.58
Mirassol — scored (away)1.11
Mirassol — conceded (away)1.16
Model expected combined goals2.2

Both Teams To Score

Yes44%
No56%

Rate per Team

Fluminense — BTTS matches (home)37%
Mirassol — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)42%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.592%
Under 6.58%
Over 7.585%
Under 7.515%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Fluminense (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against3.6

Mirassol (away)

Corners for4.7
Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Fluminense
8 13 7 10 9
Mirassol
12 18 12 11 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Fluminense (home)

For1.9

Mirassol (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Fluminense — total shots (home)14.6
Mirassol — total shots (away)13.0

Shots on Target

Fluminense — on target (home)4.8
Mirassol — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Fluminense

Inside the box7.53
Outside the box4.74

Mirassol

Inside the box8.61
Outside the box5.16

Player Shots Fluminense

K. Serna
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target9%
G. Cano
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Canobbio
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target13%
John Kennedy
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Acosta
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Mirassol

Reinaldo
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target21%
Renato Marques
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
Gabriel
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target12%
Cristian
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
Negueba
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Fluminense xG (home)1.12
Mirassol xG (away)1.49

Average Possession

52.92% Possession 50.89%

Team Comparison Fluminense vs Mirassol

84.87% Pass accuracy 83.97%
468.34 Passes per match 422.24
-0.1 Goals prevented -0.08
12.84 Fouls committed 12.18
2.51 Goalkeeper saves 3.46
0.94 Offsides 1.84
15 Tackles per match 15.13

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Fluminense vs Mirassol prediction analysis

Review Fluminense vs Mirassol with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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