Prediction Analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Atletico-MG
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico-MG prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2025-11-30
21:30
Fortaleza EC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Atletico-MG
Away
Prediction Summary
1
43%
X
28%
2
29%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Fortaleza EC (Home)
Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate32%
Atletico-MG (Away)
Goals scored / match0.68
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate32%
Team Form last 5 matches
Fortaleza EC
LWWWW
Atletico-MG
WLLDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
42%
37%
+1.5
16%
11%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
0%
32%
BTTS
32%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.
Fortaleza EC averages 1.21 goals scored at home, while Atletico-MG averages 0.68 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
43%
Draw
28%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
Head-to-Head last 5
Nov 2025
Fortaleza EC
1 - 0
Atletico-MG
Home
Nov 2025
Fortaleza EC(A)
3 - 3
Atletico-MG
Draw
Oct 2024
Fortaleza EC
1 - 1
Atletico-MG
Draw
Jun 2024
Fortaleza EC(A)
1 - 1
Atletico-MG
Draw
Nov 2023
Fortaleza EC(A)
1 - 3
Atletico-MG
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Fortaleza EC won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Fortaleza EC — unbeaten run (home)4
Fortaleza EC — scoring streak (home)4
Atletico-MG — winless run (away)2
Atletico-MG — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Fortaleza EC Win (1)43%
Draw (X)28%
Atletico-MG Win (2)29%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
42%
37%
+1.5
16%
11%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
58%
63%
-1.5
84%
89%
-2.5
95%
95%
-3.5
95%
95%
-4.5
100%
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico-MG — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Fortaleza EC — scored (home)1.21
Fortaleza EC — conceded (home)1.21
Atletico-MG — scored (away)0.68
Atletico-MG — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.29
Both Teams To Score
Yes46%
No54%
Rate per Team
Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (home)32%
Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (away)32%
Combined (simple average)32%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.592%
Under 6.58%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.564%
Under 9.536%
Over 10.553%
Under 10.547%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.00
Per-Team Corners own matches
Fortaleza EC (home)
Corners for6.7
Corners against4.6
Atletico-MG (away)
Corners for4.8
Corners against5.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Fortaleza EC
12
11
11
7
4
Atletico-MG
10
6
11
16
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Fortaleza EC (home)
For3.1
Atletico-MG (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Fortaleza EC — total shots (home)15.3
Atletico-MG — total shots (away)12.5
Shots on Target
Fortaleza EC — on target (home)4.8
Atletico-MG — on target (away)3.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Fortaleza EC
Inside the box7.63
Outside the box5.26
Atletico-MG
Inside the box8.32
Outside the box6.76
Player Shots Fortaleza EC
A. Bareiro
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target19%
Breno Lopes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Herrera
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Pochettino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target19%
Deyverson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Atletico-MG
Rony
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target29%
Hulk
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target27%
T. Cuello
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
João Marcelo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Guilherme Arana
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target12%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC xG (home)1.19
Atletico-MG xG (away)1.09
Average Possession
44.18%
Possession
54.16%
Team Comparison Fortaleza EC vs Atletico-MG
79.24%
Pass accuracy
83.87%
354.39
Passes per match
451.13
0.01
Goals prevented
0.03
14.18
Fouls committed
13.24
3.63
Goalkeeper saves
2.92
2.06
Offsides
1.83
17.79
Tackles per match
15.45
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico-MG prediction analysis
Review Fortaleza EC vs Atletico-MG with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights