Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo

Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-08-09 23:30
Fortaleza EC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
26%
Confidence
High
Score
0-0
Botafogo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
38%
X
33%
2
29%
Under 2.5
74%
BTTS No
66%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Fortaleza EC (Home)

Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate32%

Botafogo (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate21%

Team Form last 5 matches

Fortaleza EC
LWWWW
Botafogo
WDDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 47%
37% +1.5 32%
11% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 5%
32% BTTS 21%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 26%. Model confidence is High.

Fortaleza EC averages 1.21 goals scored at home, while Botafogo averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
74%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
38%
Draw
33%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
26%
BTTS Yes
34%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Fortaleza EC(A) 2 - 4 Botafogo Away
Aug 2025 Fortaleza EC 0 - 5 Botafogo Away
Sep 2024 Fortaleza EC(A) 0 - 2 Botafogo Away
May 2024 Fortaleza EC 1 - 1 Botafogo Draw
Nov 2023 Fortaleza EC 2 - 2 Botafogo Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Fortaleza EC won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Fortaleza EC — unbeaten run (home)4
Fortaleza EC — scoring streak (home)4
Botafogo — winless run (away)4
Botafogo — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Fortaleza EC Win (1)38%
Draw (X)33%
Botafogo Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 47%
37% +1.5 32%
11% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 53%
63% -1.5 68%
89% -2.5 89%
95% -3.5 95%
95% -4.5 95%

Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Fortaleza EC — scored (home)1.21
Fortaleza EC — conceded (home)1.21
Botafogo — scored (away)1
Botafogo — conceded (away)0.74
Model expected combined goals1.77

Both Teams To Score

Yes34%
No66%

Rate per Team

Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (home)32%
Botafogo — BTTS matches (away)21%
Combined (simple average)26.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.590%
Under 6.510%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.571%
Under 8.529%
Over 9.561%
Under 9.539%
Over 10.542%
Under 10.558%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Fortaleza EC (home)

Corners for6.7
Corners against4.6

Botafogo (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Fortaleza EC
12 11 11 7 4
Botafogo
12 8 12 8 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Fortaleza EC (home)

For3.1

Botafogo (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Fortaleza EC — total shots (home)15.3
Botafogo — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

Fortaleza EC — on target (home)4.8
Botafogo — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Fortaleza EC

Inside the box7.63
Outside the box5.26

Botafogo

Inside the box9.21
Outside the box5.11

Player Shots Fortaleza EC

A. Bareiro
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target19%
Breno Lopes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Herrera
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Pochettino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target19%
Deyverson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Botafogo

Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
Chris Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target15%
Arthur Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Savarino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target15%
Artur
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Fortaleza EC xG (home)1.19
Botafogo xG (away)1.32

Average Possession

44.18% Possession 51.76%

Team Comparison Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo

79.24% Pass accuracy 85.26%
354.39 Passes per match 454.05
0.01 Goals prevented 0.12
14.18 Fouls committed 14.61
3.63 Goalkeeper saves 2.47
2.06 Offsides 1.36
17.79 Tackles per match 15.24

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo prediction analysis

Review Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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