Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo

Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-10-25 22:30
Fortaleza EC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
42%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Flamengo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
24%
X
27%
2
49%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Fortaleza EC (Home)

Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate32%

Flamengo (Away)

Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Fortaleza EC
LWWWW
Flamengo
DWDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 79%
37% +1.5 58%
11% +2.5 21%
5% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 5%
32% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

Fortaleza EC averages 1.21 goals scored at home, while Flamengo averages 1.68 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
24%
Draw
27%
Away Win
49%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
46%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Fortaleza EC 1 - 0 Flamengo Home
Jun 2025 Fortaleza EC(A) 0 - 5 Flamengo Away
Nov 2024 Fortaleza EC 0 - 0 Flamengo Draw
Jul 2024 Fortaleza EC(A) 2 - 1 Flamengo Home
Nov 2023 Fortaleza EC 0 - 2 Flamengo Away

In the last 5 meetings, Fortaleza EC won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Fortaleza EC — unbeaten run (home)4
Fortaleza EC — scoring streak (home)4
Flamengo — winless run (away)3
Flamengo — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Fortaleza EC Win (1)24%
Draw (X)27%
Flamengo Win (2)49%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 79%
37% +1.5 58%
11% +2.5 21%
5% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 21%
63% -1.5 42%
89% -2.5 79%
95% -3.5 95%
95% -4.5 95%

Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Fortaleza EC — scored (home)1.21
Fortaleza EC — conceded (home)1.21
Flamengo — scored (away)1.68
Flamengo — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.35

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%
No54%

Rate per Team

Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (home)32%
Flamengo — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)45%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.558%
Under 9.542%
Over 10.548%
Under 10.552%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Fortaleza EC (home)

Corners for6.7
Corners against4.6

Flamengo (away)

Corners for5.7
Corners against3.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Fortaleza EC
12 11 11 7 4
Flamengo
8 10 6 7 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Fortaleza EC (home)

For3.1

Flamengo (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Fortaleza EC — total shots (home)15.3
Flamengo — total shots (away)13.8

Shots on Target

Fortaleza EC — on target (home)4.8
Flamengo — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Fortaleza EC

Inside the box7.63
Outside the box5.26

Flamengo

Inside the box9.92
Outside the box5.55

Player Shots Fortaleza EC

A. Bareiro
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target19%
Breno Lopes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Herrera
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Pochettino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target19%
Deyverson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Flamengo

Pedro
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target38%
G. de Arrascaeta
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target12%
Bruno Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
Samuel Lino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target10%
Luiz Araújo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Fortaleza EC xG (home)1.19
Flamengo xG (away)1.63

Average Possession

44.18% Possession 62.08%

Team Comparison Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo

79.24% Pass accuracy 88.34%
354.39 Passes per match 562.39
0.01 Goals prevented -0.02
14.18 Fouls committed 13.42
3.63 Goalkeeper saves 2.5
2.06 Offsides 1.24
17.79 Tackles per match 15.21

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo prediction analysis

Review Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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