Prediction Analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife
Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2025-09-27
19:00
Fortaleza EC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Sport Recife
Away
Prediction Summary
1
49%
X
26%
2
25%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Fortaleza EC (Home)
Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate32%
Sport Recife (Away)
Goals scored / match0.58
Goals conceded / match1.89
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate42%
Team Form last 5 matches
Fortaleza EC
LWWWW
Sport Recife
LLLLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
47%
37%
+1.5
11%
11%
+2.5
0%
5%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
32%
BTTS
42%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Medium.
Fortaleza EC averages 1.21 goals scored at home, while Sport Recife averages 0.58 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
49%
Draw
26%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
48%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jun 2026
Fortaleza EC
2 - 1
Sport Recife
Home
Sep 2025
Fortaleza EC
1 - 0
Sport Recife
Home
Apr 2025
Fortaleza EC(A)
0 - 0
Sport Recife
Draw
Sep 2021
Fortaleza EC(A)
1 - 0
Sport Recife
Home
Jun 2021
Fortaleza EC
1 - 0
Sport Recife
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Fortaleza EC won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Fortaleza EC — unbeaten run (home)4
Fortaleza EC — scoring streak (home)4
Sport Recife — winless run (away)10
Sport Recife — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Fortaleza EC Win (1)49%
Draw (X)26%
Sport Recife Win (2)25%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
47%
37%
+1.5
11%
11%
+2.5
0%
5%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
53%
63%
-1.5
89%
89%
-2.5
100%
95%
-3.5
100%
95%
-4.5
100%
Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Fortaleza EC — scored (home)1.21
Fortaleza EC — conceded (home)1.21
Sport Recife — scored (away)0.58
Sport Recife — conceded (away)1.89
Model expected combined goals2.47
Both Teams To Score
Yes48%
No52%
Rate per Team
Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (home)32%
Sport Recife — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)37%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.595%
Under 6.55%
Over 7.592%
Under 7.58%
Over 8.584%
Under 8.516%
Over 9.566%
Under 9.534%
Over 10.558%
Under 10.542%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Fortaleza EC (home)
Corners for6.7
Corners against4.6
Sport Recife (away)
Corners for5.6
Corners against5.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Fortaleza EC
12
11
11
7
4
Sport Recife
12
10
12
8
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Fortaleza EC (home)
For3.1
Sport Recife (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Fortaleza EC — total shots (home)15.3
Sport Recife — total shots (away)12.7
Shots on Target
Fortaleza EC — on target (home)4.8
Sport Recife — on target (away)3.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Fortaleza EC
Inside the box7.63
Outside the box5.26
Sport Recife
Inside the box7.42
Outside the box4.95
Player Shots Fortaleza EC
A. Bareiro
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target19%
Breno Lopes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Herrera
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Pochettino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target19%
Deyverson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Sport Recife
Derik Lacerda
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target35%
Léo Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target25%
Chrystian Barletta
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
C. Ortíz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
I. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC xG (home)1.19
Sport Recife xG (away)0.97
Average Possession
44.18%
Possession
46.24%
Team Comparison Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife
79.24%
Pass accuracy
81.37%
354.39
Passes per match
375.95
0.01
Goals prevented
0.15
14.18
Fouls committed
13.63
3.63
Goalkeeper saves
4.13
2.06
Offsides
1.84
17.79
Tackles per match
15.18
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife prediction analysis
Review Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights