Prediction Analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama
Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2025-10-16
00:30
Fortaleza EC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Vasco DA Gama
Away
Prediction Summary
1
40%
X
25%
2
35%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Fortaleza EC (Home)
Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate32%
Vasco DA Gama (Away)
Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate42%
Team Form last 5 matches
Fortaleza EC
LWWWW
Vasco DA Gama
LLWLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
58%
37%
+1.5
32%
11%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
5%
32%
BTTS
42%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.
Fortaleza EC averages 1.21 goals scored at home, while Vasco DA Gama averages 1.26 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
40%
Draw
25%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
Head-to-Head last 5
Oct 2025
Fortaleza EC
0 - 2
Vasco DA Gama
Away
May 2025
Fortaleza EC(A)
0 - 3
Vasco DA Gama
Away
Nov 2024
Fortaleza EC
3 - 0
Vasco DA Gama
Home
Jul 2024
Fortaleza EC(A)
0 - 2
Vasco DA Gama
Away
May 2024
Fortaleza EC(A)
3 - 3
Vasco DA Gama
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Fortaleza EC won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Fortaleza EC — unbeaten run (home)4
Fortaleza EC — scoring streak (home)4
Vasco DA Gama — winless run (away)4
Vasco DA Gama — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Fortaleza EC Win (1)40%
Draw (X)25%
Vasco DA Gama Win (2)35%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
58%
37%
+1.5
32%
11%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
42%
63%
-1.5
68%
89%
-2.5
79%
95%
-3.5
95%
95%
-4.5
95%
Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Fortaleza EC — scored (home)1.21
Fortaleza EC — conceded (home)1.21
Vasco DA Gama — scored (away)1.26
Vasco DA Gama — conceded (away)1.79
Model expected combined goals2.87
Both Teams To Score
Yes58%
No42%
Rate per Team
Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (home)32%
Vasco DA Gama — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)37%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.556%
Under 9.544%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Fortaleza EC (home)
Corners for6.7
Corners against4.6
Vasco DA Gama (away)
Corners for3.5
Corners against5.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Fortaleza EC
12
11
11
7
4
Vasco DA Gama
8
12
7
11
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Fortaleza EC (home)
For3.1
Vasco DA Gama (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Fortaleza EC — total shots (home)15.3
Vasco DA Gama — total shots (away)10.3
Shots on Target
Fortaleza EC — on target (home)4.8
Vasco DA Gama — on target (away)3.9
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Fortaleza EC
Inside the box7.63
Outside the box5.26
Vasco DA Gama
Inside the box7.05
Outside the box5.55
Player Shots Fortaleza EC
A. Bareiro
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target19%
Breno Lopes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Herrera
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Pochettino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target19%
Deyverson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Vasco DA Gama
Rayan
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target38%
Philippe Coutinho
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Vegetti
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
Nuno Moreira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC xG (home)1.19
Vasco DA Gama xG (away)1.17
Average Possession
44.18%
Possession
54.58%
Team Comparison Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama
79.24%
Pass accuracy
86.47%
354.39
Passes per match
481
0.01
Goals prevented
-0.15
14.18
Fouls committed
13.18
3.63
Goalkeeper saves
3
2.06
Offsides
0.81
17.79
Tackles per match
13.68
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama prediction analysis
Review Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights