Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria

Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-09-13 19:00
Fortaleza EC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Vitoria
Away

Prediction Summary

1
51%
X
26%
2
23%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Fortaleza EC (Home)

Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate32%

Vitoria (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74
Goals conceded / match1.95
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Fortaleza EC
LWWWW
Vitoria
WLWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 47%
37% +1.5 16%
11% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
32% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Fortaleza EC averages 1.21 goals scored at home, while Vitoria averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
51%
Draw
26%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 Fortaleza EC 2 - 0 Vitoria Home
Apr 2025 Fortaleza EC(A) 1 - 2 Vitoria Away
Dec 2024 Fortaleza EC(A) 0 - 2 Vitoria Away
Jul 2024 Fortaleza EC 3 - 1 Vitoria Home
May 2022 Fortaleza EC(A) 1 - 0 Vitoria Home

In the last 5 meetings, Fortaleza EC won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Fortaleza EC — unbeaten run (home)4
Fortaleza EC — scoring streak (home)4
Vitoria — winless run (away)1
Vitoria — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Fortaleza EC Win (1)51%
Draw (X)26%
Vitoria Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 47%
37% +1.5 16%
11% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 53%
63% -1.5 84%
89% -2.5 89%
95% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Fortaleza EC — scored (home)1.21
Fortaleza EC — conceded (home)1.21
Vitoria — scored (away)0.74
Vitoria — conceded (away)1.95
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (home)32%
Vitoria — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)37%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.556%
Under 9.544%
Over 10.542%
Under 10.558%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Fortaleza EC (home)

Corners for6.7
Corners against4.6

Vitoria (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Fortaleza EC
12 11 11 7 4
Vitoria
9 10 12 5 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Fortaleza EC (home)

For3.1

Vitoria (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Fortaleza EC — total shots (home)15.3
Vitoria — total shots (away)9.4

Shots on Target

Fortaleza EC — on target (home)4.8
Vitoria — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Fortaleza EC

Inside the box7.63
Outside the box5.26

Vitoria

Inside the box6.95
Outside the box4.61

Player Shots Fortaleza EC

A. Bareiro
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target19%
Breno Lopes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Herrera
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Pochettino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target19%
Deyverson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Vitoria

Wellington Rato
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Matheuzinho
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
Aitor Cantalapiedra
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
Renato Kayzer
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target17%
Erick
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Fortaleza EC xG (home)1.19
Vitoria xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

44.18% Possession 41.26%

Team Comparison Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria

79.24% Pass accuracy 78.61%
354.39 Passes per match 324.47
0.01 Goals prevented -0.04
14.18 Fouls committed 14.61
3.63 Goalkeeper saves 3.92
2.06 Offsides 1.83
17.79 Tackles per match 14.87

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria prediction analysis

Review Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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