Prediction Analysis: Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-11-18
23:30
Fortaleza FC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
37%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Deportes Tolima
Away
Prediction Summary
1
37%
X
29%
2
33%
Under 2.5
63%
BTTS No
56%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Fortaleza FC (Home)
Goals scored / match1.09
Goals conceded / match0.87
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate35%
Deportes Tolima (Away)
Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.04
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate44%
Team Form last 5 matches
Fortaleza FC
LLLWL
Deportes Tolima
LLWDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
70%
+0.5
74%
30%
+1.5
33%
4%
+2.5
15%
4%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
0%
35%
BTTS
44%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.
Fortaleza FC averages 1.09 goals scored at home, while Deportes Tolima averages 1.26 goals scored away.
Model Strength
63%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
37%
Draw
29%
Away Win
33%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
Head-to-Head last 4
Dec 2025
Fortaleza FC(A)
0 - 1
Deportes Tolima
Away
Nov 2025
Fortaleza FC
0 - 1
Deportes Tolima
Away
Aug 2025
Fortaleza FC(A)
1 - 1
Deportes Tolima
Draw
Mar 2025
Fortaleza FC
1 - 1
Deportes Tolima
Draw
In the last 4 meetings, Fortaleza FC won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Fortaleza FC — unbeaten run (home)0
Fortaleza FC — scoring streak (home)1
Deportes Tolima — winless run (away)2
Deportes Tolima — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Fortaleza FC Win (1)37%
Draw (X)29%
Deportes Tolima Win (2)33%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
70%
+0.5
74%
30%
+1.5
33%
4%
+2.5
15%
4%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
30%
-0.5
26%
70%
-1.5
67%
96%
-2.5
85%
96%
-3.5
96%
100%
-4.5
100%
Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Fortaleza FC — scored (home)1.09
Fortaleza FC — conceded (home)0.87
Deportes Tolima — scored (away)1.26
Deportes Tolima — conceded (away)1.04
Model expected combined goals2.17
Both Teams To Score
Yes44%
No56%
Rate per Team
Fortaleza FC — BTTS matches (home)35%
Deportes Tolima — BTTS matches (away)44%
Combined (simple average)39.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.593%
Under 5.57%
Over 6.591%
Under 6.59%
Over 7.572%
Under 7.528%
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Fortaleza FC (home)
Corners for5.3
Corners against5.0
Deportes Tolima (away)
Corners for3.8
Corners against5.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Fortaleza FC
6
11
11
12
8
Deportes Tolima
8
8
8
9
12
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Fortaleza FC (home)
For2.9
Deportes Tolima (away)
For2.5
Shots per Game
Fortaleza FC — total shots (home)12.4
Deportes Tolima — total shots (away)10.8
Shots on Target
Fortaleza FC — on target (home)4.1
Deportes Tolima — on target (away)4.0
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Fortaleza FC
Inside the box5.83
Outside the box6.5
Deportes Tolima
Inside the box7.02
Outside the box5.72
Player Shots Fortaleza FC
K. Salazar
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target18%
S. Valencia
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target9%
C. Lucumi
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Sanchez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%
Player Shots Deportes Tolima
G. Lencina
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Gonzalez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. P. Torres Patino
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Parra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza FC xG (home)1.3
Deportes Tolima xG (away)1.26
Average Possession
52.2%
Possession
53.69%
Team Comparison Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima
80.26%
Pass accuracy
81.54%
381.35
Passes per match
409.22
0
Goals prevented
0
10.85
Fouls committed
10.46
2.57
Goalkeeper saves
2.5
1.89
Offsides
1.42
11.02
Tackles per match
11.89
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima prediction analysis
Review Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights