Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios

Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-04-06 21:10
Fortaleza FC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Millonarios
Away

Prediction Summary

1
35%
X
24%
2
40%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
59%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Fortaleza FC (Home)

Goals scored / match1.09
Goals conceded / match0.87
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate35%

Millonarios (Away)

Goals scored / match1.17
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate48%

Team Form last 5 matches

Fortaleza FC
LLLWL
Millonarios
WDDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

70% +0.5 74%
30% +1.5 39%
4% +2.5 4%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
35% BTTS 48%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

Fortaleza FC averages 1.09 goals scored at home, while Millonarios averages 1.17 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
35%
Draw
24%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
59%

Head-to-Head last 2

Sep 2025 Fortaleza FC(A) 2 - 3 Millonarios Away
Apr 2025 Fortaleza FC 0 - 2 Millonarios Away

In the last 2 meetings, Fortaleza FC won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Fortaleza FC — unbeaten run (home)0
Fortaleza FC — scoring streak (home)1
Millonarios — winless run (away)0
Millonarios — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Fortaleza FC Win (1)35%
Draw (X)24%
Millonarios Win (2)40%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

70% +0.5 74%
30% +1.5 39%
4% +2.5 4%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

30% -0.5 26%
70% -1.5 61%
96% -2.5 96%
96% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Fortaleza FC — scored (home)1.09
Fortaleza FC — conceded (home)0.87
Millonarios — scored (away)1.17
Millonarios — conceded (away)1.26
Model expected combined goals2.95

Both Teams To Score

Yes59%
No41%

Rate per Team

Fortaleza FC — BTTS matches (home)35%
Millonarios — BTTS matches (away)48%
Combined (simple average)41.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.581%
Under 6.519%
Over 7.557%
Under 7.543%
Over 8.548%
Under 8.552%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Fortaleza FC (home)

Corners for5.3
Corners against5.0

Millonarios (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against5.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Fortaleza FC
6 11 11 12 8
Millonarios
10 6 14 6 2

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.5100%
Under 2.50%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Fortaleza FC (home)

For2.9

Millonarios (away)

For3.5

Shots per Game

Fortaleza FC — total shots (home)12.4
Millonarios — total shots (away)11.7

Shots on Target

Fortaleza FC — on target (home)4.1
Millonarios — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Fortaleza FC

Inside the box5.83
Outside the box6.5

Millonarios

Inside the box7.33
Outside the box6.74

Player Shots Fortaleza FC

K. Salazar
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target18%
S. Valencia
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target9%
C. Lucumi
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Sanchez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%

Player Shots Millonarios

Beckham Castro
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Cabezas
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
D. Ruiz
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%
R. Falcao
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Castro
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target26%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Fortaleza FC xG (home)1.3
Millonarios xG (away)1.14

Average Possession

52.2% Possession 51.83%

Team Comparison Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios

80.26% Pass accuracy 80.8%
381.35 Passes per match 372.59
0 Goals prevented 0
10.85 Fouls committed 11.65
2.57 Goalkeeper saves 2.78
1.89 Offsides 1.8
11.02 Tackles per match 13.87

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios prediction analysis

Review Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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