Prediction Analysis: Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Eredivisie
2026-08-22
14:30
Fortuna Sittard
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
AZ Alkmaar
Away
Prediction Summary
1
41%
X
24%
2
35%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Fortuna Sittard (Home)
Goals scored / match1.65
Goals conceded / match1.71
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate82%
AZ Alkmaar (Away)
Goals scored / match1.12
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Fortuna Sittard
LWLLD
AZ Alkmaar
DDDDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
76%
41%
+1.5
29%
18%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
82%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.
Fortuna Sittard averages 1.65 goals scored at home, while AZ Alkmaar averages 1.12 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
41%
Draw
24%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Fortuna Sittard(A)
0 - 2
AZ Alkmaar
Away
Dec 2025
Fortuna Sittard
4 - 3
AZ Alkmaar
Home
Feb 2025
Fortuna Sittard(A)
0 - 1
AZ Alkmaar
Away
Oct 2024
Fortuna Sittard
1 - 0
AZ Alkmaar
Home
Feb 2024
Fortuna Sittard
1 - 2
AZ Alkmaar
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Fortuna Sittard won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Fortuna Sittard — unbeaten run (home)1
Fortuna Sittard — scoring streak (home)17
AZ Alkmaar — winless run (away)5
AZ Alkmaar — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Fortuna Sittard Win (1)41%
Draw (X)24%
AZ Alkmaar Win (2)35%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
76%
41%
+1.5
29%
18%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
24%
59%
-1.5
71%
82%
-2.5
94%
94%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Fortuna Sittard — scored (home)1.65
Fortuna Sittard — conceded (home)1.71
AZ Alkmaar — scored (away)1.12
AZ Alkmaar — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.97
Both Teams To Score
Yes60%
No40%
Rate per Team
Fortuna Sittard — BTTS matches (home)82%
AZ Alkmaar — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)67.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
Fortuna Sittard (home)
Corners for4.9
Corners against6.6
AZ Alkmaar (away)
Corners for5.6
Corners against4.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Fortuna Sittard
13
7
9
11
7
AZ Alkmaar
12
15
7
10
13
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Fortuna Sittard (home)
For2.2
AZ Alkmaar (away)
For2.2
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.550%
Under 25.550%
Expected total shots26.57
Fortuna Sittard
Shots Over 9.575%
Shots Over 11.561%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.62
On Target Over 3.561%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.49
AZ Alkmaar
Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.556%
Shots Over 13.542%
Expected shots12.95
On Target Over 3.566%
On Target Over 4.551%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.91
Shots per Game
Fortuna Sittard — total shots (home)14.5
AZ Alkmaar — total shots (away)15.4
Shots on Target
Fortuna Sittard — on target (home)4.3
AZ Alkmaar — on target (away)5.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Fortuna Sittard
Inside the box7.91
Outside the box4.76
AZ Alkmaar
Inside the box10.35
Outside the box5.41
Player Shots Fortuna Sittard
M. Ihattaren
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target32%
K. Sierhuis
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target33%
L. Duijvestijn
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
K. Peterson
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
P. Gladon
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots AZ Alkmaar
T. Parrott
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target79%
+1.5 On Target43%
S. Mijnans
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Meerdink
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target21%
Weslley Patati
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%
I. Sadiq
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortuna Sittard xG (home)1.24
AZ Alkmaar xG (away)1.88
Average Possession
44.79%
Possession
53.18%
Team Comparison Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
75.56%
Pass accuracy
81.85%
363.18
Passes per match
457.76
-0.09
Goals prevented
-0.09
12.29
Fouls committed
10.21
3.74
Goalkeeper saves
3.06
1.53
Offsides
1.22
17.79
Tackles per match
17.85
League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar prediction and preview
Preview Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights