Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen

Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-08-31 10:15
Fortuna Sittard
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
69%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
NEC Nijmegen
Away

Prediction Summary

1
34%
X
22%
2
44%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS Yes
69%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Fortuna Sittard (Home)

Goals scored / match1.65
Goals conceded / match1.71
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate82%

NEC Nijmegen (Away)

Goals scored / match2.12
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate88%

Team Form last 5 matches

Fortuna Sittard
LWLLD
NEC Nijmegen
WLDDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 94%
41% +1.5 65%
18% +2.5 35%
6% +3.5 18%
0% +4.5 0%
82% BTTS 88%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 69%. Model confidence is Medium.

Fortuna Sittard averages 1.65 goals scored at home, while NEC Nijmegen averages 2.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength
69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
34%
Draw
22%
Away Win
44%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS Yes
69%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Fortuna Sittard(A) 3 - 2 NEC Nijmegen Home
Aug 2025 Fortuna Sittard 3 - 2 NEC Nijmegen Home
Jan 2025 Fortuna Sittard(A) 1 - 4 NEC Nijmegen Away
Aug 2024 Fortuna Sittard 0 - 3 NEC Nijmegen Away
Apr 2024 Fortuna Sittard 1 - 1 NEC Nijmegen Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Fortuna Sittard won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Fortuna Sittard — unbeaten run (home)1
Fortuna Sittard — scoring streak (home)17
NEC Nijmegen — winless run (away)2
NEC Nijmegen — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Fortuna Sittard Win (1)34%
Draw (X)22%
NEC Nijmegen Win (2)44%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 94%
41% +1.5 65%
18% +2.5 35%
6% +3.5 18%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 6%
59% -1.5 35%
82% -2.5 65%
94% -3.5 82%
100% -4.5 100%

Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Fortuna Sittard — scored (home)1.65
Fortuna Sittard — conceded (home)1.71
NEC Nijmegen — scored (away)2.12
NEC Nijmegen — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals3.56

Both Teams To Score

Yes69%
No31%

Rate per Team

Fortuna Sittard — BTTS matches (home)82%
NEC Nijmegen — BTTS matches (away)88%
Combined (simple average)85%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.591%
Under 6.59%
Over 7.580%
Under 7.520%
Over 8.571%
Under 8.529%
Over 9.565%
Under 9.535%
Over 10.562%
Under 10.538%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Fortuna Sittard (home)

Corners for4.9
Corners against6.6

NEC Nijmegen (away)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Fortuna Sittard
13 7 9 11 7
NEC Nijmegen
5 12 9 11 17

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Fortuna Sittard (home)

For2.2

NEC Nijmegen (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Fortuna Sittard — total shots (home)14.5
NEC Nijmegen — total shots (away)15.8

Shots on Target

Fortuna Sittard — on target (home)4.3
NEC Nijmegen — on target (away)6.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Fortuna Sittard

Inside the box7.91
Outside the box4.76

NEC Nijmegen

Inside the box10.65
Outside the box6.41

Player Shots Fortuna Sittard

M. Ihattaren
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target32%
K. Sierhuis
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target33%
L. Duijvestijn
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
K. Peterson
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
P. Gladon
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots NEC Nijmegen

T. Chery
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target42%
B. Linssen
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target28%
N. Lebreton
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
Koki Ogawa
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target19%
B. Önal
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Fortuna Sittard xG (home)1.24
NEC Nijmegen xG (away)1.88

Average Possession

44.79% Possession 56.62%

Team Comparison Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen

75.56% Pass accuracy 78.74%
363.18 Passes per match 429.21
-0.09 Goals prevented -0.09
12.29 Fouls committed 11.91
3.74 Goalkeeper saves 3.41
1.53 Offsides 2.19
17.79 Tackles per match 15.44

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen prediction analysis

Review Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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