Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: France vs England

France vs England prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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World Cup 2026-07-18 21:00
France
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
59%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
England
Away

Prediction Summary

1
41%
X
24%
2
35%
+2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
61%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

France (Home)

Goals scored / match2.2
Goals conceded / match0.6
Over 2.5 rate60%
BTTS rate20%

England (Away)

Goals scored / match2.33
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate33%
BTTS rate67%

Team Form last 5 matches

France
LWWWW
England
LWWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

80% +0.5 100%
80% +1.5 100%
60% +2.5 33%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
20% BTTS 67%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is Medium.

France averages 2.2 goals scored at home, while England averages 2.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
41%
Draw
24%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
61%

Head-to-Head last 1

Dec 2022 France(A) 2 - 1 England Home

In the last 1 meetings, France won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

France — unbeaten run (home)0
France — scoring streak (home)0
England — winless run (away)0
England — clean sheets (away, last 3)1 of 3

1X2 Probability model

France Win (1)41%
Draw (X)24%
England Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

80% +0.5 100%
80% +1.5 100%
60% +2.5 33%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

20% -0.5 0%
20% -1.5 0%
40% -2.5 67%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

France vs England — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

France — scored (home)2.2
France — conceded (home)0.6
England — scored (away)2.33
England — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals3.07

Both Teams To Score

Yes61%
No39%

Rate per Team

France — BTTS matches (home)20%
England — BTTS matches (away)67%
Combined (simple average)43.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.541%
Under 9.559%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

France (home)

Corners for6.2
Corners against2.6

England (away)

Corners for4.3
Corners against6.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

France
9 10 12 10 8
England
10 8 12 11 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.580%
Under 0.520%
Over 1.544%
Under 1.556%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)2.1

Yellow Cards per Team

France (home)

For0.3

England (away)

For1.7

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.563%
Under 19.537%
Over 22.551%
Under 22.549%
Over 25.540%
Under 25.560%
Expected total shots24.29

France

Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.561%
Shots Over 13.549%
Expected shots14.30
On Target Over 3.564%
On Target Over 4.550%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.95

England

Shots Over 9.548%
Shots Over 11.534%
Shots Over 13.522%
Expected shots9.99
On Target Over 3.545%
On Target Over 4.530%
On Target Over 5.519%
Expected on target3.56

Shots per Game

France — total shots (home)16.4
England — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

France — on target (home)6.8
England — on target (away)6.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

France

Inside the box9.14
Outside the box7.29

England

Inside the box10.43
Outside the box3.71

Player Shots France

Kylian Mbappé
Shots on Target/Game2.7
+0.5 On Target86%
+1.5 On Target86%
O. Dembélé
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target43%
D. Doué
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
M. Olise
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target29%
J. Mateta
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots England

H. Kane
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target86%
+1.5 On Target57%
J. Bellingham
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target57%
B. Saka
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Gordon
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Rashford
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

France xG (home)2.23
England xG (away)1.61

Average Possession

57.14% Possession 54.29%

Team Comparison France vs England

88.6% Pass accuracy 87.88%
532.14 Passes per match 479.14
0.1 Goals prevented -0.13
9.43 Fouls committed 10.29
1.29 Goalkeeper saves 2.14
2.2 Offsides 1.71
14.57 Tackles per match 14

League average xG this season is 1.27 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

France vs England prediction analysis

Review France vs England with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from World Cup.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance World Cup
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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