Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund

FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Bundesliga 2024-11-09 14:30
FSV Mainz 05
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Borussia Dortmund
Away

Prediction Summary

1
43%
X
26%
2
31%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

FSV Mainz 05 (Home)

Goals scored / match1.41
Goals conceded / match1.06
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate59%

Borussia Dortmund (Away)

Goals scored / match1.59
Goals conceded / match1.88
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate71%

Team Form last 5 matches

FSV Mainz 05
DWDLD
Borussia Dortmund
WWWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

82% +0.5 76%
53% +1.5 47%
6% +2.5 24%
0% +3.5 12%
0% +4.5 0%
59% BTTS 71%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Low.

FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.41 goals scored at home, while Borussia Dortmund averages 1.59 goals scored away.

Model Strength
52%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
43%
Draw
26%
Away Win
31%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 FSV Mainz 05(A) 0 - 4 Borussia Dortmund Away
Sep 2025 FSV Mainz 05 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund Away
Mar 2025 FSV Mainz 05(A) 1 - 3 Borussia Dortmund Away
Nov 2024 FSV Mainz 05 3 - 1 Borussia Dortmund Home
May 2024 FSV Mainz 05 3 - 0 Borussia Dortmund Home

In the last 5 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

FSV Mainz 05 — unbeaten run (home)13
FSV Mainz 05 — scoring streak (home)6
Borussia Dortmund — winless run (away)0
Borussia Dortmund — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FSV Mainz 05 Win (1)43%
Draw (X)26%
Borussia Dortmund Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

82% +0.5 76%
53% +1.5 47%
6% +2.5 24%
0% +3.5 12%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

18% -0.5 24%
47% -1.5 53%
94% -2.5 76%
100% -3.5 88%
100% -4.5 100%

FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FSV Mainz 05 — scored (home)1.41
FSV Mainz 05 — conceded (home)1.06
Borussia Dortmund — scored (away)1.59
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (away)1.88
Model expected combined goals2.6

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

FSV Mainz 05 — BTTS matches (home)59%
Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (away)71%
Combined (simple average)65%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.556%
Under 9.544%
Over 10.547%
Under 10.553%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

FSV Mainz 05 (home)

Corners for5.9
Corners against3.8

Borussia Dortmund (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FSV Mainz 05
12 8 9 12 11
Borussia Dortmund
8 7 7 12 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

FSV Mainz 05 (home)

For2.2

Borussia Dortmund (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

FSV Mainz 05 — total shots (home)13.4
Borussia Dortmund — total shots (away)12.9

Shots on Target

FSV Mainz 05 — on target (home)4.8
Borussia Dortmund — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FSV Mainz 05

Inside the box8.82
Outside the box3.59

Borussia Dortmund

Inside the box10.26
Outside the box3.94

Player Shots FSV Mainz 05

Hong Hyun-Seok
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target4%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Burkardt
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target34%
Lee Jae-Sung
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target12%
N. Weiper
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target13%
N. Amiri
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target37%
J. Bynoe-Gittens
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
F. Nmecha
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Sabitzer
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FSV Mainz 05 xG (home)1.49
Borussia Dortmund xG (away)1.82

Average Possession

50.32% Possession 59.24%

Team Comparison FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund

77.18% Pass accuracy 85.26%
436.5 Passes per match 552.74
0.19 Goals prevented -0.3
12 Fouls committed 9.71
3.18 Goalkeeper saves 2.74
2.26 Offsides 1.34
16.59 Tackles per match 15.18

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund prediction analysis

Review FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top