Prediction Analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-12-21
14:30
FSV Mainz 05
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC St. Pauli
Away
Prediction Summary
1
36%
X
28%
2
36%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
FSV Mainz 05 (Home)
Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate59%
FC St. Pauli (Away)
Goals scored / match0.71
Goals conceded / match1.71
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
FSV Mainz 05
WLWLD
FC St. Pauli
LLLLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
65%
+0.5
59%
41%
+1.5
12%
18%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
59%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.
FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while FC St. Pauli averages 0.71 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
36%
Draw
28%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
Head-to-Head last 4
May 2026
FSV Mainz 05(A)
2 - 1
FC St. Pauli
Home
Dec 2025
FSV Mainz 05
0 - 0
FC St. Pauli
Draw
Feb 2025
FSV Mainz 05
2 - 0
FC St. Pauli
Home
Oct 2024
FSV Mainz 05(A)
3 - 0
FC St. Pauli
Home
In the last 4 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
FSV Mainz 05 — unbeaten run (home)0
FSV Mainz 05 — scoring streak (home)2
FC St. Pauli — winless run (away)4
FC St. Pauli — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
FSV Mainz 05 Win (1)36%
Draw (X)28%
FC St. Pauli Win (2)36%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
65%
+0.5
59%
41%
+1.5
12%
18%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
35%
-0.5
41%
59%
-1.5
88%
82%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
FSV Mainz 05 — scored (home)1.24
FSV Mainz 05 — conceded (home)1.47
FC St. Pauli — scored (away)0.71
FC St. Pauli — conceded (away)1.71
Model expected combined goals2.29
Both Teams To Score
Yes46%
No54%
Rate per Team
FSV Mainz 05 — BTTS matches (home)59%
FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.588%
Under 4.512%
Over 5.582%
Under 5.518%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.559%
Under 9.541%
Over 10.547%
Under 10.553%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
FSV Mainz 05 (home)
Corners for6.2
Corners against3.8
FC St. Pauli (away)
Corners for3.6
Corners against5.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
FSV Mainz 05
6
8
14
15
9
FC St. Pauli
13
12
14
8
17
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.1
Yellow Cards per Team
FSV Mainz 05 (home)
For1.8
FC St. Pauli (away)
For1.4
Shots per Game
FSV Mainz 05 — total shots (home)13.6
FC St. Pauli — total shots (away)9.9
Shots on Target
FSV Mainz 05 — on target (home)4.1
FC St. Pauli — on target (away)2.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
FSV Mainz 05
Inside the box9.21
Outside the box2.85
FC St. Pauli
Inside the box6.09
Outside the box4.18
Player Shots FSV Mainz 05
P. Tietz
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Becker
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
S. Katompa Mvumpa
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target38%
N. Amiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target19%
B. Hollerbach
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
Player Shots FC St. Pauli
R. Jones
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Hountondji
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target19%
D. Sinani
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target23%
Mathias Pereira Lage
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target7%
M. Kaars
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
FSV Mainz 05 xG (home)1.61
FC St. Pauli xG (away)0.92
Average Possession
43.97%
Possession
44.35%
Team Comparison FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli
74.56%
Pass accuracy
77.06%
370.74
Passes per match
427.68
0.33
Goals prevented
0.25
10.97
Fouls committed
9.62
3.41
Goalkeeper saves
3.68
2.39
Offsides
1.94
15.35
Tackles per match
16.91
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli prediction analysis
Review FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights