Prediction Analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2026-08-29
13:30
FSV Mainz 05
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
SC Paderborn 07
Away
Prediction Summary
1
42%
X
26%
2
32%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
FSV Mainz 05 (Home)
Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate59%
SC Paderborn 07 (Away)
Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%
Team Form last 5 matches
FSV Mainz 05
WLWLD
SC Paderborn 07
WD
Goals Comparison rate per team
65%
+0.5
0%
41%
+1.5
0%
18%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
59%
BTTS
0%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Low.
FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while SC Paderborn 07 averages 0 goals scored away.
Model Strength
52%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
42%
Draw
26%
Away Win
32%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
52%
Head-to-Head last 2
Feb 2020
FSV Mainz 05
2 - 0
SC Paderborn 07
Home
Oct 2019
FSV Mainz 05(A)
2 - 1
SC Paderborn 07
Home
In the last 2 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
FSV Mainz 05 — unbeaten run (home)0
FSV Mainz 05 — scoring streak (home)2
SC Paderborn 07 — winless run (away)1
SC Paderborn 07 — clean sheets (away, last 1)1 of 1
1X2 Probability model
FSV Mainz 05 Win (1)42%
Draw (X)26%
SC Paderborn 07 Win (2)32%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
65%
+0.5
0%
41%
+1.5
0%
18%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
35%
-0.5
100%
59%
-1.5
100%
82%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
FSV Mainz 05 — scored (home)1.24
FSV Mainz 05 — conceded (home)1.47
SC Paderborn 07 — scored (away)0
SC Paderborn 07 — conceded (away)0
Model expected combined goals2.58
Both Teams To Score
Yes52%
No48%
Rate per Team
FSV Mainz 05 — BTTS matches (home)59%
SC Paderborn 07 — BTTS matches (away)0%
Combined (simple average)29.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.80
Per-Team Corners own matches
FSV Mainz 05 (home)
Corners for6.2
Corners against3.8
SC Paderborn 07 (away)
Corners for1.0
Corners against4.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
FSV Mainz 05
6
8
14
15
9
SC Paderborn 07
5
21
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3
Yellow Cards per Team
FSV Mainz 05 (home)
For1.8
SC Paderborn 07 (away)
For4.0
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.562%
Under 22.538%
Over 25.548%
Under 25.552%
Expected total shots25.80
FSV Mainz 05
Shots Over 9.582%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.553%
Expected shots14.51
On Target Over 3.570%
On Target Over 4.554%
On Target Over 5.539%
Expected on target5.04
SC Paderborn 07
Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.544%
Shots Over 13.529%
Expected shots11.29
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.522%
Expected on target3.94
Shots per Game
FSV Mainz 05 — total shots (home)13.6
SC Paderborn 07 — total shots (away)2.0
Shots on Target
FSV Mainz 05 — on target (home)4.1
SC Paderborn 07 — on target (away)1.0
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
FSV Mainz 05
Inside the box9.21
Outside the box2.85
SC Paderborn 07
Inside the box14.5
Outside the box6
Player Shots FSV Mainz 05
P. Tietz
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Becker
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
S. Katompa Mvumpa
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target38%
N. Amiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target19%
B. Hollerbach
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
Player Shots SC Paderborn 07
Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
FSV Mainz 05 xG (home)1.61
SC Paderborn 07 xG (away)0
Average Possession
43.97%
Possession
52%
Team Comparison FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
74.56%
Pass accuracy
80.5%
370.74
Passes per match
501.5
0.33
Goals prevented
0
10.97
Fouls committed
14
3.41
Goalkeeper saves
4.5
2.39
Offsides
0
15.35
Tackles per match
17
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction analysis
Review FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights