Prediction Analysis: Fulham vs Chelsea
Fulham vs Chelsea prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2026-08-24
19:00
Fulham
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Chelsea
Away
Prediction Summary
1
41%
X
25%
2
35%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Fulham (Home)
Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate53%
Chelsea (Away)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1.42
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate68%
Team Form last 5 matches
Fulham
WDLLW
Chelsea
LWDLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
84%
+0.5
84%
47%
+1.5
42%
21%
+2.5
26%
5%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
53%
BTTS
68%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
Fulham averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Chelsea averages 1.68 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
41%
Draw
25%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
Fulham
2 - 1
Chelsea
Home
Aug 2025
Fulham(A)
0 - 2
Chelsea
Away
Apr 2025
Fulham
1 - 2
Chelsea
Away
Dec 2024
Fulham(A)
2 - 1
Chelsea
Home
Jan 2024
Fulham(A)
0 - 1
Chelsea
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Fulham won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Fulham — unbeaten run (home)1
Fulham — scoring streak (home)1
Chelsea — winless run (away)4
Chelsea — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Fulham Win (1)41%
Draw (X)25%
Chelsea Win (2)35%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
84%
+0.5
84%
47%
+1.5
42%
21%
+2.5
26%
5%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
16%
-0.5
16%
53%
-1.5
58%
79%
-2.5
74%
95%
-3.5
89%
100%
-4.5
95%
Fulham vs Chelsea — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Fulham — scored (home)1.58
Fulham — conceded (home)1.05
Chelsea — scored (away)1.68
Chelsea — conceded (away)1.42
Model expected combined goals2.87
Both Teams To Score
Yes58%
No42%
Rate per Team
Fulham — BTTS matches (home)53%
Chelsea — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)60.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Fulham (home)
Corners for5.5
Corners against5.7
Chelsea (away)
Corners for5.1
Corners against4.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Fulham
7
7
13
9
12
Chelsea
11
11
7
7
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Fulham (home)
For2.1
Chelsea (away)
For2.8
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.543%
Under 25.557%
Expected total shots24.83
Fulham
Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.19
On Target Over 3.563%
On Target Over 4.546%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.53
Chelsea
Shots Over 9.564%
Shots Over 11.547%
Shots Over 13.532%
Expected shots11.65
On Target Over 3.558%
On Target Over 4.541%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.20
Shots per Game
Fulham — total shots (home)14.2
Chelsea — total shots (away)11.6
Shots on Target
Fulham — on target (home)4.0
Chelsea — on target (away)4.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Fulham
Inside the box8.55
Outside the box4.16
Chelsea
Inside the box8.87
Outside the box4.53
Player Shots Fulham
H. Wilson
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
R. Jiménez
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Iwobi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target3%
Kevin
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target4%
Joshua King
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots Chelsea
C. Palmer
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target27%
E. Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target17%
João Pedro
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target20%
Tyrique George
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
L. Delap
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target4%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Fulham xG (home)1.27
Chelsea xG (away)1.75
Average Possession
51.71%
Possession
57.74%
Team Comparison Fulham vs Chelsea
83.58%
Pass accuracy
86.66%
473.95
Passes per match
540.21
-0.2
Goals prevented
0.06
10.89
Fouls committed
11.05
2.65
Goalkeeper saves
2.79
1.74
Offsides
1.76
17.13
Tackles per match
15.61
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Fulham vs Chelsea prediction analysis
Review Fulham vs Chelsea with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights