Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Genoa vs Como

Genoa vs Como prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2026-09-06 16:30
Genoa
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Como
Away

Prediction Summary

1
24%
X
26%
2
49%
+2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS
47%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Genoa (Home)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate47%

Como (Away)

Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Genoa
LLDDL
Como
WWWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

58% +0.5 68%
42% +1.5 47%
16% +2.5 26%
0% +3.5 11%
0% +4.5 5%
47% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Genoa averages 1.16 goals scored at home, while Como averages 1.58 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
24%
Draw
26%
Away Win
49%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
47%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Genoa 0 - 2 Como Away
Sep 2025 Genoa(A) 1 - 1 Como Draw
Apr 2025 Genoa(A) 0 - 1 Como Away
Nov 2024 Genoa 1 - 1 Como Draw
Apr 2023 Genoa(A) 2 - 2 Como Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Genoa won 0, drew 3 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Genoa — unbeaten run (home)0
Genoa — scoring streak (home)1
Como — winless run (away)0
Como — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Genoa Win (1)24%
Draw (X)26%
Como Win (2)49%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

58% +0.5 68%
42% +1.5 47%
16% +2.5 26%
0% +3.5 11%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

42% -0.5 32%
58% -1.5 53%
84% -2.5 74%
100% -3.5 89%
100% -4.5 95%

Genoa vs Como — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Genoa — scored (home)1.16
Genoa — conceded (home)1.37
Como — scored (away)1.58
Como — conceded (away)0.74
Model expected combined goals2.42

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%
No53%

Rate per Team

Genoa — BTTS matches (home)47%
Como — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)42%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Genoa (home)

Corners for3.6
Corners against3.9

Como (away)

Corners for3.9
Corners against4.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Genoa
5 8 7 8 7
Como
5 5 14 17 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Genoa (home)

For1.7

Como (away)

For2.3

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.565%
Under 19.535%
Over 22.550%
Under 22.550%
Over 25.536%
Under 25.564%
Expected total shots23.37

Genoa

Shots Over 9.566%
Shots Over 11.549%
Shots Over 13.534%
Expected shots11.88
On Target Over 3.554%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.523%
Expected on target3.97

Como

Shots Over 9.563%
Shots Over 11.546%
Shots Over 13.531%
Expected shots11.49
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.534%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.83

Shots per Game

Genoa — total shots (home)12.1
Como — total shots (away)12.2

Shots on Target

Genoa — on target (home)3.9
Como — on target (away)3.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Genoa

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box4.34

Como

Inside the box9.53
Outside the box4.92

Player Shots Genoa

L. Colombo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target16%
Vítinha
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
R. Malinovskyi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target15%
L. Østigård
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target7%
T. Baldanzi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Como

N. Paz
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target34%
T. Douvikas
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target21%
Assane Diao
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. Addai
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. da Cunha
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Genoa xG (home)1.2
Como xG (away)1.63

Average Possession

48.71% Possession 61.61%

Team Comparison Genoa vs Como

79.5% Pass accuracy 87.05%
387.29 Passes per match 527.13
0.31 Goals prevented 0.09
12.37 Fouls committed 13.29
2.92 Goalkeeper saves 2.32
1.43 Offsides 1.23
17.34 Tackles per match 16.42

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Genoa vs Como prediction analysis

Review Genoa vs Como with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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