Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: GIL Vicente vs Moreirense

GIL Vicente vs Moreirense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-08-29 19:15
GIL Vicente
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Moreirense
Away

Prediction Summary

1
53%
X
25%
2
23%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

GIL Vicente (Home)

Goals scored / match1.65
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%

Moreirense (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

GIL Vicente
LLDWL
Moreirense
DLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

82% +0.5 65%
59% +1.5 29%
12% +2.5 6%
6% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

GIL Vicente averages 1.65 goals scored at home, while Moreirense averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
53%
Draw
25%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 GIL Vicente(A) 2 - 1 Moreirense Home
Aug 2025 GIL Vicente 2 - 0 Moreirense Home
Apr 2025 GIL Vicente 0 - 1 Moreirense Away
Jan 2025 GIL Vicente 1 - 0 Moreirense Home
Nov 2024 GIL Vicente(A) 2 - 3 Moreirense Away

In the last 5 meetings, GIL Vicente won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

GIL Vicente — unbeaten run (home)0
GIL Vicente — scoring streak (home)2
Moreirense — winless run (away)5
Moreirense — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

GIL Vicente Win (1)53%
Draw (X)25%
Moreirense Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

82% +0.5 65%
59% +1.5 29%
12% +2.5 6%
6% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

18% -0.5 35%
41% -1.5 71%
88% -2.5 94%
94% -3.5 100%
94% -4.5 100%

GIL Vicente vs Moreirense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

GIL Vicente — scored (home)1.65
GIL Vicente — conceded (home)1
Moreirense — scored (away)1
Moreirense — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals2.65

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

GIL Vicente — BTTS matches (home)47%
Moreirense — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)47%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.582%
Under 4.518%
Over 5.579%
Under 5.521%
Over 6.568%
Under 6.532%
Over 7.556%
Under 7.544%
Over 8.541%
Under 8.559%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.527%
Under 10.573%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

GIL Vicente (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against3.4

Moreirense (away)

Corners for3.3
Corners against4.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

GIL Vicente
13 7 16 8 7
Moreirense
6 11 5 9 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

GIL Vicente (home)

For2.2

Moreirense (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

GIL Vicente — total shots (home)14.6
Moreirense — total shots (away)8.5

Shots on Target

GIL Vicente — on target (home)5.0
Moreirense — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

GIL Vicente

Inside the box7.88
Outside the box5.91

Moreirense

Inside the box5.26
Outside the box3.65

Player Shots GIL Vicente

Murilo
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target22%
Pablo
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target15%
Gustavo Varela
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
Luís Esteves
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target9%
Santi García
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target15%

Player Shots Moreirense

Guilherme Schettine
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target40%
Bernardo Martins
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Alan
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target15%
N. John
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target7%
Diogo Travassos
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

GIL Vicente xG (home)1.32
Moreirense xG (away)0.93

Average Possession

49.79% Possession 49.56%

Team Comparison GIL Vicente vs Moreirense

80.24% Pass accuracy 82.47%
374.15 Passes per match 430.18
-0.13 Goals prevented -0.01
13.53 Fouls committed 13.94
2.5 Goalkeeper saves 3.09
1.44 Offsides 1.23
14.56 Tackles per match 14.21

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

GIL Vicente vs Moreirense prediction analysis

Review GIL Vicente vs Moreirense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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