Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave

GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-12-20 18:00
GIL Vicente
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
39%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Rio Ave
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
28%
2
28%
Under 2.5
61%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

GIL Vicente (Home)

Goals scored / match1.65
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%

Rio Ave (Away)

Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

GIL Vicente
LLDWL
Rio Ave
DLDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

82% +0.5 65%
59% +1.5 35%
12% +2.5 6%
6% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 39%. Model confidence is Medium.

GIL Vicente averages 1.65 goals scored at home, while Rio Ave averages 1.06 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
28%
Away Win
28%
Over 2.5
39%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 GIL Vicente(A) 0 - 0 Rio Ave Draw
Dec 2025 GIL Vicente 2 - 2 Rio Ave Draw
May 2025 GIL Vicente(A) 1 - 1 Rio Ave Draw
Jan 2025 GIL Vicente 1 - 1 Rio Ave Draw
Apr 2024 GIL Vicente(A) 0 - 3 Rio Ave Away

In the last 5 meetings, GIL Vicente won 0, drew 4 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

GIL Vicente — unbeaten run (home)0
GIL Vicente — scoring streak (home)2
Rio Ave — winless run (away)2
Rio Ave — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

GIL Vicente Win (1)44%
Draw (X)28%
Rio Ave Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

82% +0.5 65%
59% +1.5 35%
12% +2.5 6%
6% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

18% -0.5 35%
41% -1.5 65%
88% -2.5 94%
94% -3.5 100%
94% -4.5 100%

GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

GIL Vicente — scored (home)1.65
GIL Vicente — conceded (home)1
Rio Ave — scored (away)1.06
Rio Ave — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals2.26

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

GIL Vicente — BTTS matches (home)47%
Rio Ave — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.588%
Under 4.512%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

GIL Vicente (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against3.4

Rio Ave (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against7.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

GIL Vicente
13 7 16 8 7
Rio Ave
13 8 16 11 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

GIL Vicente (home)

For2.2

Rio Ave (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

GIL Vicente — total shots (home)14.6
Rio Ave — total shots (away)8.5

Shots on Target

GIL Vicente — on target (home)5.0
Rio Ave — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

GIL Vicente

Inside the box7.88
Outside the box5.91

Rio Ave

Inside the box6.5
Outside the box4

Player Shots GIL Vicente

Murilo
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target22%
Pablo
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target15%
Gustavo Varela
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
Luís Esteves
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target9%
Santi García
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target15%

Player Shots Rio Ave

Clayton
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target47%
J. Blesa
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target31%
André Luiz
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Vrousai
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target13%
Tamble Monteiro
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

GIL Vicente xG (home)1.32
Rio Ave xG (away)1.04

Average Possession

49.79% Possession 47.03%

Team Comparison GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave

80.24% Pass accuracy 81.68%
374.15 Passes per match 386.65
-0.13 Goals prevented 0.13
13.53 Fouls committed 12.88
2.5 Goalkeeper saves 3.38
1.44 Offsides 1.57
14.56 Tackles per match 15.59

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave prediction analysis

Review GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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