Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Girona vs Arsenal

Girona vs Arsenal prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2025-01-29 20:00
Girona
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
0-1
Arsenal
Away

Prediction Summary

1
25%
X
26%
2
49%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Girona (Home)

Goals scored / match1.25
Goals conceded / match1.5
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate50%

Arsenal (Away)

Goals scored / match2.43
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate71%

Team Form last 5 matches

Girona
LLLLL
Arsenal
LLWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

75% +0.5 71%
50% +1.5 57%
0% +2.5 29%
0% +3.5 29%
0% +4.5 29%
50% BTTS 71%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Girona averages 1.25 goals scored at home, while Arsenal averages 2.43 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
25%
Draw
26%
Away Win
49%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 1

Jan 2025 Girona 1 - 2 Arsenal Away

In the last 1 meetings, Girona won 0, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Girona — unbeaten run (home)0
Girona — scoring streak (home)1
Arsenal — winless run (away)1
Arsenal — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Girona Win (1)25%
Draw (X)26%
Arsenal Win (2)49%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

75% +0.5 71%
50% +1.5 57%
0% +2.5 29%
0% +3.5 29%
0% +4.5 29%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

25% -0.5 29%
50% -1.5 43%
100% -2.5 71%
100% -3.5 71%
100% -4.5 71%

Girona vs Arsenal — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Girona — scored (home)1.25
Girona — conceded (home)1.5
Arsenal — scored (away)2.43
Arsenal — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

Girona — BTTS matches (home)50%
Arsenal — BTTS matches (away)71%
Combined (simple average)60.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.593%
Under 6.57%
Over 7.593%
Under 7.57%
Over 8.579%
Under 8.521%
Over 9.579%
Under 9.521%
Over 10.579%
Under 10.521%
Expected total corners (blended average)12.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Girona (home)

Corners for6.5
Corners against6.8

Arsenal (away)

Corners for6.3
Corners against4.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Girona
10 11 13 9 16
Arsenal
9 8 14 4 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.586%
Under 2.514%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Girona (home)

For3.5

Arsenal (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Girona — total shots (home)12.3
Arsenal — total shots (away)14.3

Shots on Target

Girona — on target (home)5.5
Arsenal — on target (away)5.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Girona

Inside the box6.63
Outside the box3.25

Arsenal

Inside the box10.29
Outside the box2.79

Player Shots Girona

B. Miovski
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
Miguel Gutiérrez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Y. Herrera
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%
A. Danjuma
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%
Arnau Martínez
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Arsenal

R. Sterling
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
Gabriel Jesus
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
B. Saka
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target89%
+1.5 On Target56%
D. Rice
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
E. Nwaneri
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target29%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Girona xG (home)1.22
Arsenal xG (away)1.92

Average Possession

51% Possession 51%

Team Comparison Girona vs Arsenal

85.63% Pass accuracy 85.29%
466.38 Passes per match 445.5
0.52 Goals prevented 0.25
14.5 Fouls committed 11.14
4.5 Goalkeeper saves 2.43
1.5 Offsides 1.64
16.63 Tackles per match 14.86

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Girona vs Arsenal prediction analysis

Review Girona vs Arsenal with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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