Prediction Analysis: Gremio vs Fluminense
Gremio vs Fluminense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-07-26
21:30
Gremio
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Gremio
Probability
47%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Fluminense
Away
Prediction Summary
1
47%
X
27%
2
26%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Gremio (Home)
Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%
Fluminense (Away)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate42%
Team Form last 5 matches
Gremio
LWLWL
Fluminense
DWWWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
74%
+0.5
58%
37%
+1.5
37%
16%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
53%
BTTS
42%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Medium.
Gremio averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Fluminense averages 1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
47%
Draw
27%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
Head-to-Head last 5
Dec 2025
Gremio
1 - 2
Fluminense
Away
Aug 2025
Gremio(A)
0 - 1
Fluminense
Away
Nov 2024
Gremio(A)
2 - 2
Fluminense
Draw
Jun 2024
Gremio
1 - 0
Fluminense
Home
Dec 2023
Gremio(A)
3 - 2
Fluminense
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Gremio won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Gremio — unbeaten run (home)0
Gremio — scoring streak (home)3
Fluminense — winless run (away)0
Fluminense — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Gremio Win (1)47%
Draw (X)27%
Fluminense Win (2)26%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
74%
+0.5
58%
37%
+1.5
37%
16%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
26%
-0.5
42%
63%
-1.5
63%
84%
-2.5
95%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Gremio vs Fluminense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Gremio — scored (home)1.26
Gremio — conceded (home)0.89
Fluminense — scored (away)1
Fluminense — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.32
Both Teams To Score
Yes46%
No54%
Rate per Team
Gremio — BTTS matches (home)53%
Fluminense — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)47.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Gremio (home)
Corners for4.3
Corners against4.7
Fluminense (away)
Corners for3.5
Corners against6.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Gremio
8
8
10
6
9
Fluminense
13
7
10
9
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3
Yellow Cards per Team
Gremio (home)
For2.7
Fluminense (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.548%
Under 25.552%
Expected total shots25.86
Gremio
Shots Over 9.582%
Shots Over 11.569%
Shots Over 13.553%
Expected shots14.38
On Target Over 3.570%
On Target Over 4.554%
On Target Over 5.538%
Expected on target4.99
Fluminense
Shots Over 9.564%
Shots Over 11.546%
Shots Over 13.530%
Expected shots11.48
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.533%
On Target Over 5.520%
Expected on target3.78
Shots per Game
Gremio — total shots (home)14.4
Fluminense — total shots (away)9.9
Shots on Target
Gremio — on target (home)5.2
Fluminense — on target (away)3.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Gremio
Inside the box7.21
Outside the box5.03
Fluminense
Inside the box7.53
Outside the box4.74
Player Shots Gremio
Carlos Vinícius
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Braithwaite
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target16%
F. Amuzu
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target17%
André Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
M. Arezo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
Player Shots Fluminense
K. Serna
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target9%
G. Cano
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Canobbio
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Acosta
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
John Kennedy
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio xG (home)1.29
Fluminense xG (away)1.12
Average Possession
45.16%
Possession
52.92%
Team Comparison Gremio vs Fluminense
82.32%
Pass accuracy
84.87%
379.66
Passes per match
468.34
0.22
Goals prevented
-0.1
13.37
Fouls committed
12.84
3.41
Goalkeeper saves
2.51
1.08
Offsides
0.94
17.44
Tackles per match
14.87
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Gremio vs Fluminense prediction analysis
Review Gremio vs Fluminense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights