What markets are included in the Gremio vs Santos prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Gremio vs Santos prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Gremio vs Santos

Gremio vs Santos prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-05-04 19:00

Gremio

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

41%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Santos

Away

Prediction Summary

44%

28%

Under 2.5

59%

BTTS No

53%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Gremio (Home)

Goals scored / match1.26

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate53%

Santos (Away)

Goals scored / match1.11

Goals conceded / match1.63

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Gremio

WLWLW

Santos

WWWDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 63%

37% +1.5 37%

16% +2.5 11%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Gremio averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Santos averages 1.11 goals scored away.

Model Strength

59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

44%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Over 2.5

41%

BTTS Yes

47%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Gremio(A) 1 - 1 Santos Draw

May 2025 Gremio 1 - 0 Santos Home

Aug 2023 Gremio(A) 1 - 2 Santos Away

Apr 2023 Gremio 1 - 0 Santos Home

Oct 2021 Gremio(A) 0 - 1 Santos Away

In the last 5 meetings, Gremio won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Gremio — unbeaten run (home)0

Gremio — scoring streak (home)3

Santos — winless run (away)0

Santos — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Gremio Win (1)44%

Draw (X)28%

Santos Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 63%

37% +1.5 37%

16% +2.5 11%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 37%

63% -1.5 63%

84% -2.5 89%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Gremio vs Santos — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Gremio — scored (home)1.26

Gremio — conceded (home)0.89

Santos — scored (away)1.11

Santos — conceded (away)1.63

Model expected combined goals2.33

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%

No53%

Rate per Team

Gremio — BTTS matches (home)53%

Santos — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.555%

Under 8.545%

Over 9.545%

Under 9.555%

Over 10.527%

Under 10.573%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Gremio (home)

Corners for4.3

Corners against4.7

Santos (away)

Corners for3.5

Corners against6.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Gremio

8 8 8 10 6

Santos

12 5 12 8 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.590%

Under 2.510%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Gremio (home)

For2.7

Santos (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Gremio — total shots (home)14.4

Santos — total shots (away)10.3

Shots on Target

Gremio — on target (home)5.2

Santos — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Gremio

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box5.03

Santos

Inside the box8.05

Outside the box5.13

Player Shots Gremio

Carlos Vinícius

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target36%

M. Braithwaite

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target17%

F. Amuzu

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target18%

André Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target16%

M. Arezo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target25%

Player Shots Santos

Neymar

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target35%

Guilherme

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target56%

+1.5 On Target13%

Á. Barreal

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target15%

B. Rollheiser

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target31%

+1.5 On Target17%

Victor Hugo

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Gremio xG (home)1.29

Santos xG (away)1.25

Average Possession

45.16% Possession 49.68%

Team Comparison Gremio vs Santos

82.32% Pass accuracy 82.87%

379.66 Passes per match 394.58

0.22 Goals prevented -0.02

13.37 Fouls committed 13.74

3.41 Goalkeeper saves 3.42

1.08 Offsides 1.68

17.37 Tackles per match 17.89

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Gremio vs Santos prediction analysis

Review Gremio vs Santos with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights