What markets are included in the Gremio vs Sao Paulo prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Gremio vs Sao Paulo prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Gremio vs Sao Paulo

Gremio vs Sao Paulo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-10-16 22:00

Gremio

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

32%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Sao Paulo

Away

Prediction Summary

39%

31%

Under 2.5

68%

BTTS No

60%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Gremio (Home)

Goals scored / match1.26

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate53%

Sao Paulo (Away)

Goals scored / match0.84

Goals conceded / match1.58

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Gremio

WLWLW

Sao Paulo

LWLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 53%

37% +1.5 32%

16% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 32%. Model confidence is Medium.

Gremio averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Sao Paulo averages 0.84 goals scored away.

Model Strength

68%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

39%

Draw

31%

Away Win

31%

Over 2.5

32%

BTTS Yes

40%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Gremio 2 - 0 Sao Paulo Home

May 2025 Gremio(A) 1 - 2 Sao Paulo Away

Dec 2024 Gremio 2 - 1 Sao Paulo Home

Jul 2024 Gremio(A) 0 - 1 Sao Paulo Away

Oct 2023 Gremio(A) 0 - 3 Sao Paulo Away

In the last 5 meetings, Gremio won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Gremio — unbeaten run (home)0

Gremio — scoring streak (home)3

Sao Paulo — winless run (away)3

Sao Paulo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Gremio Win (1)39%

Draw (X)31%

Sao Paulo Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 53%

37% +1.5 32%

16% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 47%

63% -1.5 68%

84% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Gremio vs Sao Paulo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Gremio — scored (home)1.26

Gremio — conceded (home)0.89

Sao Paulo — scored (away)0.84

Sao Paulo — conceded (away)1.58

Model expected combined goals2

Both Teams To Score

Yes40%

No60%

Rate per Team

Gremio — BTTS matches (home)53%

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (away)37%

Combined (simple average)45%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.590%

Under 6.510%

Over 7.576%

Under 7.524%

Over 8.558%

Under 8.542%

Over 9.548%

Under 9.552%

Over 10.532%

Under 10.568%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Gremio (home)

Corners for4.3

Corners against4.7

Sao Paulo (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against6.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Gremio

8 8 8 10 6

Sao Paulo

9 11 7 13 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.595%

Under 2.55%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Gremio (home)

For2.7

Sao Paulo (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Gremio — total shots (home)14.4

Sao Paulo — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Gremio — on target (home)5.2

Sao Paulo — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Gremio

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box5.03

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Player Shots Gremio

Carlos Vinícius

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target36%

M. Braithwaite

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target17%

F. Amuzu

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target18%

André Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target16%

M. Arezo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target25%

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target19%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Gremio xG (home)1.29

Sao Paulo xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

45.16% Possession 52.13%

Team Comparison Gremio vs Sao Paulo

82.32% Pass accuracy 83.71%

379.66 Passes per match 438.63

0.22 Goals prevented 0.21

13.37 Fouls committed 14.24

3.41 Goalkeeper saves 3.21

1.08 Offsides 1.47

17.37 Tackles per match 17.21

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Gremio vs Sao Paulo prediction analysis

Review Gremio vs Sao Paulo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights