Prediction Analysis: Guimaraes vs Arouca
Guimaraes vs Arouca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primeira Liga
2026-08-08
17:00
Guimaraes
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Arouca
Away
Prediction Summary
1
52%
X
23%
2
25%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Guimaraes (Home)
Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate53%
Arouca (Away)
Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Guimaraes
LLLWW
Arouca
WWDLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
76%
+0.5
71%
41%
+1.5
29%
18%
+2.5
18%
12%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
53%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.
Guimaraes averages 1.53 goals scored at home, while Arouca averages 1.18 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
52%
Draw
23%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Guimaraes(A)
2 - 3
Arouca
Away
Aug 2025
Guimaraes
1 - 1
Arouca
Draw
Jan 2025
Guimaraes
2 - 2
Arouca
Draw
Aug 2024
Guimaraes(A)
1 - 0
Arouca
Home
May 2024
Guimaraes(A)
3 - 1
Arouca
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Guimaraes won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Guimaraes — unbeaten run (home)0
Guimaraes — scoring streak (home)0
Arouca — winless run (away)0
Arouca — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Guimaraes Win (1)52%
Draw (X)23%
Arouca Win (2)25%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
76%
+0.5
71%
41%
+1.5
29%
18%
+2.5
18%
12%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
24%
-0.5
29%
59%
-1.5
71%
82%
-2.5
82%
88%
-3.5
100%
94%
-4.5
100%
Guimaraes vs Arouca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Guimaraes — scored (home)1.53
Guimaraes — conceded (home)1.12
Arouca — scored (away)1.18
Arouca — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals2.91
Both Teams To Score
Yes57%
No43%
Rate per Team
Guimaraes — BTTS matches (home)53%
Arouca — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Guimaraes (home)
Corners for4.4
Corners against4.3
Arouca (away)
Corners for3.4
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Guimaraes
13
8
8
10
8
Arouca
7
9
11
8
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Guimaraes (home)
For2.5
Arouca (away)
For2.3
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.568%
Under 19.532%
Over 22.554%
Under 22.546%
Over 25.541%
Under 25.559%
Expected total shots24.39
Guimaraes
Shots Over 9.575%
Shots Over 11.561%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.51
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.51
Arouca
Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.526%
Expected shots10.88
On Target Over 3.548%
On Target Over 4.532%
On Target Over 5.519%
Expected on target3.69
Shots per Game
Guimaraes — total shots (home)13.5
Arouca — total shots (away)10.6
Shots on Target
Guimaraes — on target (home)4.1
Arouca — on target (away)2.9
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Guimaraes
Inside the box7.38
Outside the box5.94
Arouca
Inside the box6.15
Outside the box4.53
Player Shots Guimaraes
Gustavo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target22%
Samu
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target10%
Tiago Silva
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
Nélson Oliveira
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Ndoye
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
Player Shots Arouca
Barbero
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target13%
A. Trezza
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
N. Djouahra
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target9%
Lee Hyun-Ju
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target3%
D. Nandín
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target5%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Guimaraes xG (home)1.2
Arouca xG (away)1
Average Possession
51.38%
Possession
50.21%
Team Comparison Guimaraes vs Arouca
81.71%
Pass accuracy
81.91%
393.65
Passes per match
413.24
-0.11
Goals prevented
-0.24
14.53
Fouls committed
13.82
3.12
Goalkeeper saves
2.68
1.94
Offsides
1.48
15.35
Tackles per match
14.26
League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Guimaraes vs Arouca prediction analysis
Review Guimaraes vs Arouca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights