Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2026-09-06 13:30
Hamburger SV
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FSV Mainz 05
Away

Prediction Summary

1
43%
X
25%
2
32%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Hamburger SV (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate71%

FSV Mainz 05 (Away)

Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Hamburger SV
DWWLL
FSV Mainz 05
WLWLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

76% +0.5 76%
41% +1.5 47%
24% +2.5 6%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
71% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.

Hamburger SV averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.35 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
43%
Draw
25%
Away Win
32%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
58%

Head-to-Head last 2

Feb 2026 Hamburger SV(A) 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05 Draw
Oct 2025 Hamburger SV 4 - 0 FSV Mainz 05 Home

In the last 2 meetings, Hamburger SV won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Hamburger SV — unbeaten run (home)1
Hamburger SV — scoring streak (home)4
FSV Mainz 05 — winless run (away)0
FSV Mainz 05 — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Hamburger SV Win (1)43%
Draw (X)25%
FSV Mainz 05 Win (2)32%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

76% +0.5 76%
41% +1.5 47%
24% +2.5 6%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

24% -0.5 24%
59% -1.5 53%
76% -2.5 94%
94% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Hamburger SV — scored (home)1.47
Hamburger SV — conceded (home)1.29
FSV Mainz 05 — scored (away)1.35
FSV Mainz 05 — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals2.88

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%
No42%

Rate per Team

Hamburger SV — BTTS matches (home)71%
FSV Mainz 05 — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)68%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Hamburger SV (home)

Corners for3.8
Corners against5.8

FSV Mainz 05 (away)

Corners for3.9
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Hamburger SV
10 13 13 6 11
FSV Mainz 05
6 8 14 15 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Hamburger SV (home)

For2.3

FSV Mainz 05 (away)

For2.4

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.576%
Under 19.524%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.549%
Under 25.551%
Expected total shots26.11

Hamburger SV

Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.553%
Expected shots14.39
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.556%
On Target Over 5.541%
Expected on target5.17

FSV Mainz 05

Shots Over 9.565%
Shots Over 11.548%
Shots Over 13.532%
Expected shots11.72
On Target Over 3.555%
On Target Over 4.538%
On Target Over 5.524%
Expected on target4.07

Shots per Game

Hamburger SV — total shots (home)13.3
FSV Mainz 05 — total shots (away)10.5

Shots on Target

Hamburger SV — on target (home)4.7
FSV Mainz 05 — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Hamburger SV

Inside the box8.06
Outside the box4.24

FSV Mainz 05

Inside the box9.21
Outside the box2.85

Player Shots Hamburger SV

R. Königsdörffer
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target12%
Fábio Vieira
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Dompé
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target20%
R. Philippe
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Grønbæk
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Becker
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
S. Katompa Mvumpa
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target38%
N. Amiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target19%
B. Hollerbach
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Hamburger SV xG (home)1.22
FSV Mainz 05 xG (away)1.61

Average Possession

45.35% Possession 43.97%

Team Comparison Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05

80% Pass accuracy 74.56%
390.12 Passes per match 370.74
0.02 Goals prevented 0.33
11.82 Fouls committed 10.97
3.35 Goalkeeper saves 3.41
1.79 Offsides 2.39
15 Tackles per match 15.35

League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction analysis

Review Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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