Prediction Analysis: Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-12-07
14:30
Hamburger SV
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Werder Bremen
Away
Prediction Summary
1
53%
X
23%
2
24%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Hamburger SV (Home)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate71%
Werder Bremen (Away)
Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.71
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Hamburger SV
DWWLL
Werder Bremen
LLLDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
76%
+0.5
59%
41%
+1.5
24%
24%
+2.5
12%
6%
+3.5
12%
0%
+4.5
0%
71%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
Hamburger SV averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Werder Bremen averages 1.06 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
53%
Draw
23%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
Head-to-Head last 4
Apr 2026
Hamburger SV(A)
1 - 3
Werder Bremen
Away
Dec 2025
Hamburger SV
3 - 2
Werder Bremen
Home
Feb 2022
Hamburger SV
2 - 3
Werder Bremen
Away
Sep 2021
Hamburger SV(A)
2 - 0
Werder Bremen
Home
In the last 4 meetings, Hamburger SV won 2, drew 0 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Hamburger SV — unbeaten run (home)1
Hamburger SV — scoring streak (home)4
Werder Bremen — winless run (away)3
Werder Bremen — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Hamburger SV Win (1)53%
Draw (X)23%
Werder Bremen Win (2)24%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
76%
+0.5
59%
41%
+1.5
24%
24%
+2.5
12%
6%
+3.5
12%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
24%
-0.5
41%
59%
-1.5
76%
76%
-2.5
88%
94%
-3.5
88%
100%
-4.5
100%
Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Hamburger SV — scored (home)1.47
Hamburger SV — conceded (home)1.29
Werder Bremen — scored (away)1.06
Werder Bremen — conceded (away)1.71
Model expected combined goals3
Both Teams To Score
Yes58%
No42%
Rate per Team
Hamburger SV — BTTS matches (home)71%
Werder Bremen — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)59%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.556%
Under 9.544%
Over 10.547%
Under 10.553%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Hamburger SV (home)
Corners for3.8
Corners against5.8
Werder Bremen (away)
Corners for4.2
Corners against6.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Hamburger SV
10
13
13
6
11
Werder Bremen
10
16
10
11
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Hamburger SV (home)
For2.3
Werder Bremen (away)
For2.3
Shots per Game
Hamburger SV — total shots (home)13.3
Werder Bremen — total shots (away)10.8
Shots on Target
Hamburger SV — on target (home)4.7
Werder Bremen — on target (away)3.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Hamburger SV
Inside the box8.06
Outside the box4.24
Werder Bremen
Inside the box8.09
Outside the box4.94
Player Shots Hamburger SV
R. Königsdörffer
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target12%
Fábio Vieira
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Dompé
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target20%
R. Philippe
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Grønbæk
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Player Shots Werder Bremen
J. Stage
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Njinmah
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target21%
R. Schmid
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target12%
V. Boniface
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target9%
S. Musah
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Hamburger SV xG (home)1.22
Werder Bremen xG (away)1.23
Average Possession
45.35%
Possession
51.15%
Team Comparison Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen
80%
Pass accuracy
81.53%
390.12
Passes per match
480.41
0.02
Goals prevented
0.2
11.82
Fouls committed
9.91
3.35
Goalkeeper saves
3.26
1.79
Offsides
1.82
15
Tackles per match
17.12
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen prediction analysis
Review Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights