Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk

Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premiership 2025-09-27 14:00
Heart Of Midlothian
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Falkirk
Away

Prediction Summary

1
61%
X
23%
2
16%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS No
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Heart Of Midlothian (Home)

Goals scored / match1.95
Goals conceded / match0.58
Over 2.5 rate32%
BTTS rate42%

Falkirk (Away)

Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match1.56
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate33%

Team Form last 5 matches

Heart Of Midlothian
LWDWW
Falkirk
LLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 56%
58% +1.5 28%
32% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
42% BTTS 33%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Medium.

Heart Of Midlothian averages 1.95 goals scored at home, while Falkirk averages 0.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
61%
Draw
23%
Away Win
16%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
44%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Heart Of Midlothian 3 - 0 Falkirk Home
Feb 2026 Heart Of Midlothian 1 - 0 Falkirk Home
Jan 2026 Heart Of Midlothian 1 - 1 Falkirk Draw
Dec 2025 Heart Of Midlothian(A) 2 - 0 Falkirk Home
Sep 2025 Heart Of Midlothian 3 - 0 Falkirk Home

In the last 5 meetings, Heart Of Midlothian won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Heart Of Midlothian — unbeaten run (home)19
Heart Of Midlothian — scoring streak (home)19
Falkirk — winless run (away)2
Falkirk — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Heart Of Midlothian Win (1)61%
Draw (X)23%
Falkirk Win (2)16%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 56%
58% +1.5 28%
32% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 44%
42% -1.5 72%
68% -2.5 89%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Heart Of Midlothian — scored (home)1.95
Heart Of Midlothian — conceded (home)0.58
Falkirk — scored (away)0.94
Falkirk — conceded (away)1.56
Model expected combined goals2.51

Both Teams To Score

Yes44%
No56%

Rate per Team

Heart Of Midlothian — BTTS matches (home)42%
Falkirk — BTTS matches (away)33%
Combined (simple average)37.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.589%
Under 6.511%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.576%
Under 8.524%
Over 9.568%
Under 9.532%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Heart Of Midlothian (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against4.5

Falkirk (away)

Corners for5.1
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Heart Of Midlothian
11 8 8 10 15
Falkirk
16 7 11 10 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Heart Of Midlothian (home)

For1.6

Falkirk (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Heart Of Midlothian — total shots (home)14.7
Falkirk — total shots (away)11.0

Shots on Target

Heart Of Midlothian — on target (home)5.4
Falkirk — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Heart Of Midlothian

Inside the box9.74
Outside the box4.58

Falkirk

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box4.37

Player Shots Heart Of Midlothian

L. Shankland
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target48%
Cláudio Braga
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
A. Kyziridis
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target13%
P. Kabore
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target12%
Ageu
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Falkirk

B. Stewart
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target18%
R. MacIver
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. Miller
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target16%
Brian Graham
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target5%
B. Broggio
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Heart Of Midlothian xG (home)1.46
Falkirk xG (away)1.37

Average Possession

53.39% Possession 50.79%

Team Comparison Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk

75.55% Pass accuracy 76.66%
414.24 Passes per match 400.39
-0.46 Goals prevented -0.43
10.92 Fouls committed 12.05
2 Goalkeeper saves 3.03
1.31 Offsides 2.14
16.87 Tackles per match 18.11

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk prediction analysis

Review Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premiership.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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