What markets are included in the Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Heerenveen vs Excelsior

Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-10-04 19:00

Heerenveen

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

75%

Confidence

High

Score

2-1

Excelsior

Away

Prediction Summary

63%

18%

19%

Over 2.5

75%

BTTS Yes

69%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

Heerenveen (Home)

Goals scored / match1.94

Goals conceded / match1.41

Over 2.5 rate35%

BTTS rate76%

Excelsior (Away)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match2

Over 2.5 rate12%

BTTS rate76%

Team Form last 5 matches

Heerenveen

LDLWW

Excelsior

WDWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

82% +0.5 82%

65% +1.5 41%

35% +2.5 12%

12% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

76% BTTS 76%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 75%. Model confidence is High.

Heerenveen averages 1.94 goals scored at home, while Excelsior averages 1.35 goals scored away.

Model Strength

75%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

63%

Draw

18%

Away Win

19%

Over 2.5

75%

BTTS Yes

69%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Heerenveen(A) 2 - 1 Excelsior Home

Oct 2025 Heerenveen 2 - 1 Excelsior Home

Jan 2024 Heerenveen(A) 0 - 3 Excelsior Away

Sep 2023 Heerenveen 0 - 3 Excelsior Away

May 2023 Heerenveen 0 - 0 Excelsior Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Heerenveen won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Heerenveen — unbeaten run (home)7

Heerenveen — scoring streak (home)0

Excelsior — winless run (away)0

Excelsior — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Heerenveen Win (1)63%

Draw (X)18%

Excelsior Win (2)19%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

82% +0.5 82%

65% +1.5 41%

35% +2.5 12%

12% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

18% -0.5 18%

35% -1.5 59%

65% -2.5 88%

88% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Heerenveen vs Excelsior — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Heerenveen — scored (home)1.94

Heerenveen — conceded (home)1.41

Excelsior — scored (away)1.35

Excelsior — conceded (away)2

Model expected combined goals3.92

Both Teams To Score

Yes69%

No31%

Rate per Team

Heerenveen — BTTS matches (home)76%

Excelsior — BTTS matches (away)76%

Combined (simple average)76%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.5100%

Under 5.50%

Over 6.5100%

Under 6.50%

Over 7.585%

Under 7.515%

Over 8.574%

Under 8.526%

Over 9.556%

Under 9.544%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Heerenveen (home)

Corners for5.9

Corners against4.2

Excelsior (away)

Corners for4.0

Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Heerenveen

7 12 10 16 15

Excelsior

7 5 13 5 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%

Under 0.56%

Over 1.577%

Under 1.523%

Over 2.556%

Under 2.544%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)2.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Heerenveen (home)

For1.6

Excelsior (away)

For1.3

Shots per Game

Heerenveen — total shots (home)16.2

Excelsior — total shots (away)12.1

Shots on Target

Heerenveen — on target (home)5.8

Excelsior — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Heerenveen

Inside the box9.89

Outside the box5

Excelsior

Inside the box8.24

Outside the box4.24

Player Shots Heerenveen

J. Trenskow

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target35%

L. Nordås

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target35%

M. Rivera

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target27%

D. Vente

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target16%

R. Meerveld

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target16%

Player Shots Excelsior

N. Naujoks

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target19%

D. Sanches Fernandes

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target12%

G. de Regt

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target6%

I. Yegoian

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target6%

M. Jonathans

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Heerenveen xG (home)1.71

Excelsior xG (away)1.34

Average Possession

51.2% Possession 47.56%

Team Comparison Heerenveen vs Excelsior

79.77% Pass accuracy 77.47%

443.94 Passes per match 404.35

-0.23 Goals prevented 0.06

10.89 Fouls committed 12.29

3.83 Goalkeeper saves 3.82

1.26 Offsides 1.03

15.17 Tackles per match 14.41

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction analysis

Review Heerenveen vs Excelsior with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights