Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Hellas Verona vs Atalanta

Hellas Verona vs Atalanta prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-12-06 19:45
Hellas Verona
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
39%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Atalanta
Away

Prediction Summary

1
30%
X
28%
2
42%
Under 2.5
61%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Hellas Verona (Home)

Goals scored / match0.63
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate42%

Atalanta (Away)

Goals scored / match1.37
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Hellas Verona
LDLDD
Atalanta
DLWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

42% +0.5 89%
16% +1.5 32%
5% +2.5 16%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
42% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 39%. Model confidence is Medium.

Hellas Verona averages 0.63 goals scored at home, while Atalanta averages 1.37 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
42%
Over 2.5
39%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Hellas Verona(A) 0 - 1 Atalanta Away
Dec 2025 Hellas Verona 3 - 1 Atalanta Home
Feb 2025 Hellas Verona 0 - 5 Atalanta Away
Oct 2024 Hellas Verona(A) 1 - 6 Atalanta Away
Apr 2024 Hellas Verona(A) 2 - 2 Atalanta Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Hellas Verona won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Hellas Verona — unbeaten run (home)0
Hellas Verona — scoring streak (home)0
Atalanta — winless run (away)1
Atalanta — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Hellas Verona Win (1)30%
Draw (X)28%
Atalanta Win (2)42%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

42% +0.5 89%
16% +1.5 32%
5% +2.5 16%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

58% -0.5 11%
84% -1.5 68%
95% -2.5 84%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Hellas Verona vs Atalanta — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Hellas Verona — scored (home)0.63
Hellas Verona — conceded (home)1.47
Atalanta — scored (away)1.37
Atalanta — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.25

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

Hellas Verona — BTTS matches (home)42%
Atalanta — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%
Under 4.510%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.566%
Under 7.534%
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Hellas Verona (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.0

Atalanta (away)

Corners for4.5
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Hellas Verona
6 15 14 12 12
Atalanta
10 8 4 7 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Hellas Verona (home)

For2.1

Atalanta (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Hellas Verona — total shots (home)10.9
Atalanta — total shots (away)12.5

Shots on Target

Hellas Verona — on target (home)3.9
Atalanta — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Hellas Verona

Inside the box6.21
Outside the box4.89

Atalanta

Inside the box9.79
Outside the box5

Player Shots Hellas Verona

Giovane
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target38%
G. Orban
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target29%
K. Bowie
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target21%
T. Suslov
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Frese
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Atalanta

N. Krstović
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target27%
G. Scamacca
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
G. Raspadori
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Lookman
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. De Ketelaere
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Hellas Verona xG (home)0.94
Atalanta xG (away)1.52

Average Possession

40.13% Possession 55.13%

Team Comparison Hellas Verona vs Atalanta

74.21% Pass accuracy 84.05%
329.53 Passes per match 493.89
-0.07 Goals prevented 0.26
15.76 Fouls committed 11.84
2.61 Goalkeeper saves 3.11
1.75 Offsides 1.97
18.82 Tackles per match 15.61

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Hellas Verona vs Atalanta prediction analysis

Review Hellas Verona vs Atalanta with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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