Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Hellas Verona vs Cagliari

Hellas Verona vs Cagliari prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-04-28 18:45
Hellas Verona
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Cagliari
Away

Prediction Summary

1
30%
X
26%
2
43%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Hellas Verona (Home)

Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.89
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate37%

Cagliari (Away)

Goals scored / match0.84
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Hellas Verona
WDDLL
Cagliari
LWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

47% +0.5 58%
21% +1.5 21%
11% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
37% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Hellas Verona averages 0.79 goals scored at home, while Cagliari averages 0.84 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
30%
Draw
26%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Hellas Verona(A) 0 - 4 Cagliari Away
Oct 2025 Hellas Verona 2 - 2 Cagliari Draw
Apr 2025 Hellas Verona 0 - 2 Cagliari Away
Nov 2024 Hellas Verona(A) 0 - 1 Cagliari Away
Apr 2024 Hellas Verona(A) 1 - 1 Cagliari Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Hellas Verona won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Hellas Verona — unbeaten run (home)2
Hellas Verona — scoring streak (home)2
Cagliari — winless run (away)2
Cagliari — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Hellas Verona Win (1)30%
Draw (X)26%
Cagliari Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

47% +0.5 58%
21% +1.5 21%
11% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

53% -0.5 42%
79% -1.5 79%
89% -2.5 95%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Hellas Verona vs Cagliari — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Hellas Verona — scored (home)0.79
Hellas Verona — conceded (home)1.89
Cagliari — scored (away)0.84
Cagliari — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.53

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Hellas Verona — BTTS matches (home)37%
Cagliari — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)45%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.574%
Under 5.526%
Over 6.563%
Under 6.537%
Over 7.563%
Under 7.537%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Hellas Verona (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.2

Cagliari (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Hellas Verona
5 7 9 10 14
Cagliari
5 9 6 16 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Hellas Verona (home)

For2.7

Cagliari (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Hellas Verona — total shots (home)10.9
Cagliari — total shots (away)8.7

Shots on Target

Hellas Verona — on target (home)2.7
Cagliari — on target (away)2.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Hellas Verona

Inside the box6.18
Outside the box3.66

Cagliari

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box3.39

Player Shots Hellas Verona

D. Mosquera
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target9%
D. Ghilardi
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target4%
T. Suslov
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target3%
S. Serdar
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target5%
C. Tengstedt
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Cagliari

R. Piccoli
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target19%
G. Gaetano
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target7%
G. Lapadula
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target8%
N. Viola
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target4%
G. Zappa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Hellas Verona xG (home)0.91
Cagliari xG (away)1.13

Average Possession

38.47% Possession 44.76%

Team Comparison Hellas Verona vs Cagliari

74.21% Pass accuracy 78.68%
318.58 Passes per match 370.08
0.01 Goals prevented -0.03
15.24 Fouls committed 13.16
2.95 Goalkeeper saves 2.61
1.57 Offsides 1.76
17.71 Tackles per match 14.18

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Hellas Verona vs Cagliari prediction analysis

Review Hellas Verona vs Cagliari with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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