Prediction Analysis: Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2025-02-23
14:00
Hellas Verona
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-2
Fiorentina
Away
Prediction Summary
1
17%
X
21%
2
62%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Hellas Verona (Home)
Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.89
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate37%
Fiorentina (Away)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate58%
Team Form last 5 matches
Hellas Verona
WDDLL
Fiorentina
WWLLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
47%
+0.5
79%
21%
+1.5
42%
11%
+2.5
11%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
37%
BTTS
58%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
Hellas Verona averages 0.79 goals scored at home, while Fiorentina averages 1.47 goals scored away.
Model Strength
62%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
17%
Draw
21%
Away Win
62%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Hellas Verona
0 - 1
Fiorentina
Away
Dec 2025
Hellas Verona(A)
2 - 1
Fiorentina
Home
Feb 2025
Hellas Verona
1 - 0
Fiorentina
Home
Nov 2024
Hellas Verona(A)
1 - 3
Fiorentina
Away
May 2024
Hellas Verona
2 - 1
Fiorentina
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Hellas Verona won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Hellas Verona — unbeaten run (home)2
Hellas Verona — scoring streak (home)2
Fiorentina — winless run (away)0
Fiorentina — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Hellas Verona Win (1)17%
Draw (X)21%
Fiorentina Win (2)62%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
47%
+0.5
79%
21%
+1.5
42%
11%
+2.5
11%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
53%
-0.5
21%
79%
-1.5
58%
89%
-2.5
89%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
95%
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Hellas Verona — scored (home)0.79
Hellas Verona — conceded (home)1.89
Fiorentina — scored (away)1.47
Fiorentina — conceded (away)1.21
Model expected combined goals3
Both Teams To Score
Yes54%
No46%
Rate per Team
Hellas Verona — BTTS matches (home)37%
Fiorentina — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)47.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.587%
Under 4.513%
Over 5.577%
Under 5.523%
Over 6.563%
Under 6.537%
Over 7.558%
Under 7.542%
Over 8.548%
Under 8.552%
Over 9.537%
Under 9.563%
Over 10.527%
Under 10.573%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Hellas Verona (home)
Corners for4.8
Corners against4.2
Fiorentina (away)
Corners for3.7
Corners against4.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Hellas Verona
5
7
9
10
14
Fiorentina
7
11
6
6
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3
Yellow Cards per Team
Hellas Verona (home)
For2.7
Fiorentina (away)
For2.3
Shots per Game
Hellas Verona — total shots (home)10.9
Fiorentina — total shots (away)11.9
Shots on Target
Hellas Verona — on target (home)2.7
Fiorentina — on target (away)4.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Hellas Verona
Inside the box6.18
Outside the box3.66
Fiorentina
Inside the box7.41
Outside the box4.38
Player Shots Hellas Verona
D. Mosquera
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target9%
D. Ghilardi
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target4%
T. Suslov
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target3%
S. Serdar
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target5%
C. Tengstedt
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target4%
Player Shots Fiorentina
M. Kean
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target38%
C. Biraghi
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Ranieri
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target6%
R. Mandragora
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Guðmundsson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target17%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Hellas Verona xG (home)0.91
Fiorentina xG (away)1.31
Average Possession
38.47%
Possession
51.11%
Team Comparison Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina
74.21%
Pass accuracy
82.78%
318.58
Passes per match
427.43
0.01
Goals prevented
0.04
15.24
Fouls committed
11.59
2.95
Goalkeeper saves
2.89
1.57
Offsides
2.3
17.71
Tackles per match
13.95
League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina prediction analysis
Review Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights