Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Hellas Verona vs Napoli

Hellas Verona vs Napoli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2024-08-18 16:30
Hellas Verona
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Napoli
Away

Prediction Summary

1
17%
X
24%
2
59%
Under 2.5
56%
BTTS No
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Hellas Verona (Home)

Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.89
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate37%

Napoli (Away)

Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Hellas Verona
WDDLL
Napoli
WDDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

47% +0.5 79%
21% +1.5 37%
11% +2.5 21%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
37% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Hellas Verona averages 0.79 goals scored at home, while Napoli averages 1.42 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
17%
Draw
24%
Away Win
59%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Napoli Away
Jan 2026 Hellas Verona(A) 2 - 2 Napoli Draw
Jan 2025 Hellas Verona(A) 0 - 2 Napoli Away
Aug 2024 Hellas Verona 3 - 0 Napoli Home
Feb 2024 Hellas Verona(A) 1 - 2 Napoli Away

In the last 5 meetings, Hellas Verona won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Hellas Verona — unbeaten run (home)2
Hellas Verona — scoring streak (home)2
Napoli — winless run (away)1
Napoli — clean sheets (away, last 5)4 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Hellas Verona Win (1)17%
Draw (X)24%
Napoli Win (2)59%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

47% +0.5 79%
21% +1.5 37%
11% +2.5 21%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

53% -0.5 21%
79% -1.5 63%
89% -2.5 79%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Hellas Verona vs Napoli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Hellas Verona — scored (home)0.79
Hellas Verona — conceded (home)1.89
Napoli — scored (away)1.42
Napoli — conceded (away)0.74
Model expected combined goals2.42

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%
No57%

Rate per Team

Hellas Verona — BTTS matches (home)37%
Napoli — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)39.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.579%
Under 5.521%
Over 6.563%
Under 6.537%
Over 7.558%
Under 7.542%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Hellas Verona (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.2

Napoli (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Hellas Verona
5 7 9 10 14
Napoli
7 7 8 5 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Hellas Verona (home)

For2.7

Napoli (away)

For1.4

Shots per Game

Hellas Verona — total shots (home)10.9
Napoli — total shots (away)10.2

Shots on Target

Hellas Verona — on target (home)2.7
Napoli — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Hellas Verona

Inside the box6.18
Outside the box3.66

Napoli

Inside the box9.26
Outside the box4

Player Shots Hellas Verona

D. Mosquera
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target9%
D. Ghilardi
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target4%
T. Suslov
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target3%
S. Serdar
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target5%
C. Tengstedt
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Napoli

C. Ngonge
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target11%
G. Raspadori
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target8%
P. Billing
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
S. McTominay
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target24%
K. Kvaratskhelia
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Hellas Verona xG (home)0.91
Napoli xG (away)1.43

Average Possession

38.47% Possession 54.55%

Team Comparison Hellas Verona vs Napoli

74.21% Pass accuracy 86.08%
318.58 Passes per match 485.32
0.01 Goals prevented 0.04
15.24 Fouls committed 10.92
2.95 Goalkeeper saves 1.92
1.57 Offsides 1.49
17.71 Tackles per match 14.08

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Hellas Verona vs Napoli prediction analysis

Review Hellas Verona vs Napoli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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