Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Hellas Verona vs Parma

Hellas Verona vs Parma prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-23 11:30
Hellas Verona
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
24%
Confidence
High
Score
0-0
Parma
Away

Prediction Summary

1
42%
X
33%
2
25%
Under 2.5
76%
BTTS No
68%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Hellas Verona (Home)

Goals scored / match0.63
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate42%

Parma (Away)

Goals scored / match0.63
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate32%

Team Form last 5 matches

Hellas Verona
LDLDD
Parma
WLLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

42% +0.5 53%
16% +1.5 11%
5% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
42% BTTS 32%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 24%. Model confidence is High.

Hellas Verona averages 0.63 goals scored at home, while Parma averages 0.63 goals scored away.

Model Strength
76%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
42%
Draw
33%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
24%
BTTS Yes
32%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Hellas Verona(A) 1 - 2 Parma Away
Nov 2025 Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Parma Away
Mar 2025 Hellas Verona 0 - 0 Parma Draw
Dec 2024 Hellas Verona(A) 3 - 2 Parma Home
Feb 2021 Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Parma Home

In the last 5 meetings, Hellas Verona won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Hellas Verona — unbeaten run (home)0
Hellas Verona — scoring streak (home)0
Parma — winless run (away)2
Parma — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Hellas Verona Win (1)42%
Draw (X)33%
Parma Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

42% +0.5 53%
16% +1.5 11%
5% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

58% -0.5 47%
84% -1.5 89%
95% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Hellas Verona vs Parma — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Hellas Verona — scored (home)0.63
Hellas Verona — conceded (home)1.47
Parma — scored (away)0.63
Parma — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals1.7

Both Teams To Score

Yes32%
No68%

Rate per Team

Hellas Verona — BTTS matches (home)42%
Parma — BTTS matches (away)32%
Combined (simple average)37%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.569%
Under 7.531%
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.542%
Under 9.558%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Hellas Verona (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.0

Parma (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Hellas Verona
6 15 14 12 12
Parma
11 11 9 17 2

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Hellas Verona (home)

For2.1

Parma (away)

For1.6

Shots per Game

Hellas Verona — total shots (home)10.9
Parma — total shots (away)9.0

Shots on Target

Hellas Verona — on target (home)3.9
Parma — on target (away)2.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Hellas Verona

Inside the box6.21
Outside the box4.89

Parma

Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.74

Player Shots Hellas Verona

Giovane
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target38%
G. Orban
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target29%
K. Bowie
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target21%
T. Suslov
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Frese
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Parma

Mateo Pellegrino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Gabriel Strefezza
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
P. Cutrone
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target13%
J. Ondrejka
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target6%
Adrián Bernabé
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Hellas Verona xG (home)0.94
Parma xG (away)0.84

Average Possession

40.13% Possession 44%

Team Comparison Hellas Verona vs Parma

74.21% Pass accuracy 79.66%
329.53 Passes per match 361.58
-0.07 Goals prevented 0.07
15.76 Fouls committed 10.87
2.61 Goalkeeper saves 3.03
1.75 Offsides 1.35
18.82 Tackles per match 13.92

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Hellas Verona vs Parma prediction analysis

Review Hellas Verona vs Parma with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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