Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap

Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eerste Divisie 2026-08-09 10:15
Helmond Sport
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
64%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
De Graafschap
Away

Prediction Summary

1
38%
X
23%
2
38%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Helmond Sport (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate68%

De Graafschap (Away)

Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.6
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate70%

Team Form last 5 matches

Helmond Sport
LWDDL
De Graafschap
DLLWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 75%
63% +1.5 65%
5% +2.5 30%
5% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
68% BTTS 70%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 64%. Model confidence is Medium.

Helmond Sport averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while De Graafschap averages 1.75 goals scored away.

Model Strength
64%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
38%
Draw
23%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
64%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Helmond Sport 0 - 0 De Graafschap Draw
Nov 2025 Helmond Sport(A) 1 - 3 De Graafschap Away
May 2025 Helmond Sport 1 - 4 De Graafschap Away
Sep 2024 Helmond Sport(A) 3 - 2 De Graafschap Home
Feb 2024 Helmond Sport 3 - 1 De Graafschap Home

In the last 5 meetings, Helmond Sport won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Helmond Sport — unbeaten run (home)2
Helmond Sport — scoring streak (home)2
De Graafschap — winless run (away)4
De Graafschap — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Helmond Sport Win (1)38%
Draw (X)23%
De Graafschap Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 75%
63% +1.5 65%
5% +2.5 30%
5% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 25%
37% -1.5 35%
95% -2.5 70%
95% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Helmond Sport — scored (home)1.63
Helmond Sport — conceded (home)1.47
De Graafschap — scored (away)1.75
De Graafschap — conceded (away)1.6
Model expected combined goals3.23

Both Teams To Score

Yes64%
No36%

Rate per Team

Helmond Sport — BTTS matches (home)68%
De Graafschap — BTTS matches (away)70%
Combined (simple average)69%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.546%
Under 10.554%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Helmond Sport (home)

Corners for6.9
Corners against4.3

De Graafschap (away)

Corners for6.1
Corners against6.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Helmond Sport
8 1 8 6 6
De Graafschap
8 11 13 7 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Helmond Sport (home)

For1.9

De Graafschap (away)

For1.7

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.581%
Under 19.519%
Over 22.569%
Under 22.531%
Over 25.555%
Under 25.545%
Expected total shots27.47

Helmond Sport

Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.566%
Shots Over 13.550%
Expected shots14.03
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.93

De Graafschap

Shots Over 9.577%
Shots Over 11.562%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.44
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.89

Shots per Game

Helmond Sport — total shots (home)12.0
De Graafschap — total shots (away)15.0

Shots on Target

Helmond Sport — on target (home)4.3
De Graafschap — on target (away)6.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Helmond Sport

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.37

De Graafschap

Inside the box11.71
Outside the box5.92

Player Shots Helmond Sport

L. Daneels
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Et-Taïbi
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target5%
M. Łukowicz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target17%
O. Zimuangana
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
B. Koglin
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots De Graafschap

Nils Eggens
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target46%
R. Niemeijer
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target53%
S. Bultman
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target4%
Bouke Boersma
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target32%
I. El Kadiri
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target27%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Helmond Sport xG (home)1.17
De Graafschap xG (away)2.08

Average Possession

48.92% Possession 55.97%

Team Comparison Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap

80.01% Pass accuracy 83.07%
405.79 Passes per match 446.08
0 Goals prevented 0
14.34 Fouls committed 11.89
2.47 Goalkeeper saves 3.71
2 Offsides 1.94
17.39 Tackles per match 16.37

League average xG this season is 1.67 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap prediction and preview

Preview Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.

1X2 Over/Under 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eerste Divisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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