Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München

Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2024-09-14 16:30
Holstein Kiel
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
72%
Confidence
High
Score
1-2
Bayern München
Away

Prediction Summary

1
16%
X
17%
2
67%
Over 2.5
72%
BTTS Yes
64%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Holstein Kiel (Home)

Goals scored / match1.41
Goals conceded / match2.41
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate59%

Bayern München (Away)

Goals scored / match2.71
Goals conceded / match0.94
Over 2.5 rate59%
BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

Holstein Kiel
LLWWD
Bayern München
WWDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

65% +0.5 94%
35% +1.5 65%
18% +2.5 59%
18% +3.5 29%
6% +4.5 18%
59% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 72%. Model confidence is High.

Holstein Kiel averages 1.41 goals scored at home, while Bayern München averages 2.71 goals scored away.

Model Strength
72%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
16%
Draw
17%
Away Win
67%
Over 2.5
72%
BTTS Yes
64%

Head-to-Head last 3

Feb 2025 Holstein Kiel(A) 3 - 4 Bayern München Away
Sep 2024 Holstein Kiel 1 - 6 Bayern München Away
Jan 2021 Holstein Kiel 2 - 2 Bayern München Draw

In the last 3 meetings, Holstein Kiel won 0, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Holstein Kiel — unbeaten run (home)0
Holstein Kiel — scoring streak (home)3
Bayern München — winless run (away)0
Bayern München — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Holstein Kiel Win (1)16%
Draw (X)17%
Bayern München Win (2)67%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

65% +0.5 94%
35% +1.5 65%
18% +2.5 59%
18% +3.5 29%
6% +4.5 18%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

35% -0.5 6%
65% -1.5 35%
82% -2.5 41%
82% -3.5 71%
94% -4.5 82%

Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Holstein Kiel — scored (home)1.41
Holstein Kiel — conceded (home)2.41
Bayern München — scored (away)2.71
Bayern München — conceded (away)0.94
Model expected combined goals3.74

Both Teams To Score

Yes64%
No36%

Rate per Team

Holstein Kiel — BTTS matches (home)59%
Bayern München — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)59%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.562%
Under 7.538%
Over 8.544%
Under 8.556%
Over 9.541%
Under 9.559%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Holstein Kiel (home)

Corners for3.6
Corners against5.8

Bayern München (away)

Corners for6.2
Corners against2.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Holstein Kiel
16 15 12 7 8
Bayern München
8 8 9 13 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Holstein Kiel (home)

For2.2

Bayern München (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Holstein Kiel — total shots (home)11.2
Bayern München — total shots (away)16.7

Shots on Target

Holstein Kiel — on target (home)4.2
Bayern München — on target (away)6.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Holstein Kiel

Inside the box7.21
Outside the box3.76

Bayern München

Inside the box12.97
Outside the box6.03

Player Shots Holstein Kiel

A. Kelati
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
P. Harres
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
S. Machino
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
N. Remberg
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
A. Bernhardsson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target16%

Player Shots Bayern München

H. Kane
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target48%
J. Musiala
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
M. Olise
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target32%
L. Sané
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%
M. Tel
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Holstein Kiel xG (home)1.18
Bayern München xG (away)2.38

Average Possession

43.65% Possession 68.35%

Team Comparison Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München

76.41% Pass accuracy 89.56%
370.29 Passes per match 716.71
-0.15 Goals prevented -0.07
11.97 Fouls committed 8.68
3.59 Goalkeeper saves 1.5
1.38 Offsides 1.81
15.97 Tackles per match 14.76

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München prediction analysis

Review Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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