Prediction Analysis: Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-04-12
13:30
Holstein Kiel
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC St. Pauli
Away
Prediction Summary
1
30%
X
24%
2
47%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Holstein Kiel (Home)
Goals scored / match1.41
Goals conceded / match2.41
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate59%
FC St. Pauli (Away)
Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate41%
Team Form last 5 matches
Holstein Kiel
LLWWD
FC St. Pauli
LDLDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
65%
+0.5
65%
35%
+1.5
35%
18%
+2.5
6%
18%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
59%
BTTS
41%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
Holstein Kiel averages 1.41 goals scored at home, while FC St. Pauli averages 1.06 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
30%
Draw
24%
Away Win
47%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2025
Holstein Kiel
1 - 2
FC St. Pauli
Away
Nov 2024
Holstein Kiel(A)
1 - 3
FC St. Pauli
Away
Feb 2024
Holstein Kiel
3 - 4
FC St. Pauli
Away
Sep 2023
Holstein Kiel(A)
1 - 5
FC St. Pauli
Away
May 2023
Holstein Kiel
3 - 4
FC St. Pauli
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Holstein Kiel won 0, drew 0 and lost 5.
Current Streaks
Holstein Kiel — unbeaten run (home)0
Holstein Kiel — scoring streak (home)3
FC St. Pauli — winless run (away)2
FC St. Pauli — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Holstein Kiel Win (1)30%
Draw (X)24%
FC St. Pauli Win (2)47%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
65%
+0.5
65%
35%
+1.5
35%
18%
+2.5
6%
18%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
35%
-0.5
35%
65%
-1.5
65%
82%
-2.5
94%
82%
-3.5
100%
94%
-4.5
100%
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Holstein Kiel — scored (home)1.41
Holstein Kiel — conceded (home)2.41
FC St. Pauli — scored (away)1.06
FC St. Pauli — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals3.04
Both Teams To Score
Yes60%
No40%
Rate per Team
Holstein Kiel — BTTS matches (home)59%
FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)50%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.541%
Under 9.559%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Holstein Kiel (home)
Corners for3.6
Corners against5.8
FC St. Pauli (away)
Corners for3.6
Corners against5.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Holstein Kiel
16
15
12
7
8
FC St. Pauli
8
4
8
4
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Holstein Kiel (home)
For2.2
FC St. Pauli (away)
For1.9
Shots per Game
Holstein Kiel — total shots (home)11.2
FC St. Pauli — total shots (away)10.3
Shots on Target
Holstein Kiel — on target (home)4.2
FC St. Pauli — on target (away)3.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Holstein Kiel
Inside the box7.21
Outside the box3.76
FC St. Pauli
Inside the box7.06
Outside the box4.09
Player Shots Holstein Kiel
A. Kelati
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
P. Harres
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
S. Machino
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
N. Remberg
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
A. Bernhardsson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target16%
Player Shots FC St. Pauli
J. Eggestein
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Metcalfe
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Saad
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Irvine
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Holstein Kiel xG (home)1.18
FC St. Pauli xG (away)1.03
Average Possession
43.65%
Possession
43.97%
Team Comparison Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli
76.41%
Pass accuracy
78.09%
370.29
Passes per match
406.94
-0.15
Goals prevented
0.21
11.97
Fouls committed
10.38
3.59
Goalkeeper saves
2.97
1.38
Offsides
1.97
15.97
Tackles per match
15.91
League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli prediction analysis
Review Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights