Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Hull City vs Stoke City

Hull City vs Stoke City prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2026-01-01 15:00
Hull City
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Stoke City
Away

Prediction Summary

1
40%
X
27%
2
34%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Hull City (Home)

Goals scored / match1.44
Goals conceded / match1.36
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate60%

Stoke City (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74
Goals conceded / match1.22
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate26%

Team Form last 5 matches

Hull City
WWDWL
Stoke City
LLLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

76% +0.5 48%
44% +1.5 17%
20% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
60% BTTS 26%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.

Hull City averages 1.44 goals scored at home, while Stoke City averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
40%
Draw
27%
Away Win
34%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Hull City 0 - 1 Stoke City Away
Nov 2025 Hull City(A) 2 - 1 Stoke City Home
Feb 2025 Hull City 1 - 2 Stoke City Away
Sep 2024 Hull City(A) 3 - 1 Stoke City Home
Mar 2024 Hull City 0 - 2 Stoke City Away

In the last 5 meetings, Hull City won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Hull City — unbeaten run (home)6
Hull City — scoring streak (home)1
Stoke City — winless run (away)9
Stoke City — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Hull City Win (1)40%
Draw (X)27%
Stoke City Win (2)34%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

76% +0.5 48%
44% +1.5 17%
20% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

24% -0.5 52%
56% -1.5 83%
80% -2.5 91%
96% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Hull City vs Stoke City — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Hull City — scored (home)1.44
Hull City — conceded (home)1.36
Stoke City — scored (away)0.74
Stoke City — conceded (away)1.22
Model expected combined goals2.54

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

Hull City — BTTS matches (home)60%
Stoke City — BTTS matches (away)26%
Combined (simple average)43%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.555%
Under 8.545%
Over 9.551%
Under 9.549%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Hull City (home)

Corners for4.2
Corners against4.5

Stoke City (away)

Corners for5.6
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Hull City
16 8 5 14 4
Stoke City
7 8 12 9 17

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Hull City (home)

For2.1

Stoke City (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Hull City — total shots (home)11.2
Stoke City — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

Hull City — on target (home)3.8
Stoke City — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Hull City

Inside the box7.59
Outside the box3.53

Stoke City

Inside the box7.33
Outside the box3.93

Player Shots Hull City

O. McBurnie
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target23%
J. Gelhardt
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target19%
M. Belloumi
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target12%
K. Joseph
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Millar
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Stoke City

M. Manhoef
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
S. Thomas
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target16%
D. Mubama
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target15%
L. Cissé
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Rak-Sakyi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Hull City xG (home)1.29
Stoke City xG (away)1.11

Average Possession

45% Possession 51.91%

Team Comparison Hull City vs Stoke City

72.02% Pass accuracy 78.17%
351.37 Passes per match 399.07
0.13 Goals prevented 0
11.16 Fouls committed 10.48
3.12 Goalkeeper saves 2.61
1.73 Offsides 2.7
17.67 Tackles per match 12.98

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Hull City vs Stoke City prediction analysis

Review Hull City vs Stoke City with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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