Prediction Analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas
Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-03-30
01:10
Independiente Medellin
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
36%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Águilas Doradas
Away
Prediction Summary
1
61%
X
25%
2
14%
Under 2.5
64%
BTTS No
64%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Independiente Medellin (Home)
Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.81
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate52%
Águilas Doradas (Away)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.1
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate50%
Team Form last 5 matches
Independiente Medellin
WLDLD
Águilas Doradas
LLWWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
85%
+0.5
60%
48%
+1.5
25%
30%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
52%
BTTS
50%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 36%. Model confidence is Medium.
Independiente Medellin averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Águilas Doradas averages 1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
64%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
61%
Draw
25%
Away Win
14%
Over 2.5
36%
BTTS Yes
36%
Head-to-Head last 2
Oct 2025
Independiente Medellin(A)
1 - 2
Águilas Doradas
Away
Mar 2025
Independiente Medellin
0 - 0
Águilas Doradas
Draw
In the last 2 meetings, Independiente Medellin won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Independiente Medellin — unbeaten run (home)11
Independiente Medellin — scoring streak (home)2
Águilas Doradas — winless run (away)1
Águilas Doradas — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Independiente Medellin Win (1)61%
Draw (X)25%
Águilas Doradas Win (2)14%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
85%
+0.5
60%
48%
+1.5
25%
30%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
15%
-0.5
40%
52%
-1.5
75%
70%
-2.5
95%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
95%
Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Independiente Medellin — scored (home)1.63
Independiente Medellin — conceded (home)0.81
Águilas Doradas — scored (away)1
Águilas Doradas — conceded (away)1.1
Model expected combined goals2.15
Both Teams To Score
Yes36%
No64%
Rate per Team
Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (home)52%
Águilas Doradas — BTTS matches (away)50%
Combined (simple average)51%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Independiente Medellin (home)
Corners for5.6
Corners against3.6
Águilas Doradas (away)
Corners for4.7
Corners against5.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Independiente Medellin
12
7
4
3
7
Águilas Doradas
16
7
12
9
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.5100%
Under 2.50%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Independiente Medellin (home)
For3.0
Águilas Doradas (away)
For3.0
Shots per Game
Independiente Medellin — total shots (home)17.6
Águilas Doradas — total shots (away)11.3
Shots on Target
Independiente Medellin — on target (home)5.7
Águilas Doradas — on target (away)3.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Independiente Medellin
Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04
Águilas Doradas
Inside the box6.5
Outside the box5.55
Player Shots Independiente Medellin
B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots Águilas Doradas
Y. González
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target22%
F. Salazar
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target27%
J. Rivaldo
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target9%
D. Lemos
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
W. Morelo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target6%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Medellin xG (home)1.4
Águilas Doradas xG (away)1.19
Average Possession
56.72%
Possession
47.55%
Team Comparison Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas
80.91%
Pass accuracy
77.18%
412.61
Passes per match
329.4
0
Goals prevented
0
11.06
Fouls committed
11.88
2.41
Goalkeeper saves
2.8
1.26
Offsides
1.56
10.46
Tackles per match
12.18
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas prediction analysis
Review Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights