Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali

Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-06-01 00:45
Independiente Medellin
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
23%
Confidence
High
Score
1-0
America de Cali
Away

Prediction Summary

1
46%
X
33%
2
21%
Under 2.5
77%
BTTS No
71%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Independiente Medellin (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.81
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate52%

America de Cali (Away)

Goals scored / match0.88
Goals conceded / match0.96
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Independiente Medellin
WLDLD
America de Cali
WLDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

85% +0.5 62%
48% +1.5 19%
30% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%
52% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 23%. Model confidence is High.

Independiente Medellin averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while America de Cali averages 0.88 goals scored away.

Model Strength
77%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
46%
Draw
33%
Away Win
21%
Over 2.5
23%
BTTS Yes
29%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Independiente Medellin 1 - 1 America de Cali Draw
Nov 2025 Independiente Medellin(A) 1 - 2 America de Cali Away
Nov 2025 Independiente Medellin 3 - 0 America de Cali Home
Jun 2025 Independiente Medellin(A) 1 - 1 America de Cali Draw
Jun 2025 Independiente Medellin 1 - 1 America de Cali Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Independiente Medellin won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Independiente Medellin — unbeaten run (home)11
Independiente Medellin — scoring streak (home)2
America de Cali — winless run (away)4
America de Cali — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Independiente Medellin Win (1)46%
Draw (X)33%
America de Cali Win (2)21%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

85% +0.5 62%
48% +1.5 19%
30% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

15% -0.5 38%
52% -1.5 81%
70% -2.5 96%
100% -3.5 96%
100% -4.5 100%

Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Independiente Medellin — scored (home)1.63
Independiente Medellin — conceded (home)0.81
America de Cali — scored (away)0.88
America de Cali — conceded (away)0.96
Model expected combined goals1.65

Both Teams To Score

Yes29%
No71%

Rate per Team

Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (home)52%
America de Cali — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)43.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.565%
Under 7.535%
Over 8.551%
Under 8.549%
Over 9.536%
Under 9.564%
Over 10.524%
Under 10.576%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Independiente Medellin (home)

Corners for5.6
Corners against3.6

America de Cali (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Independiente Medellin
12 7 4 3 7
America de Cali
7 7 4 6 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.596%
Under 2.54%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6

Yellow Cards per Team

Independiente Medellin (home)

For3.0

America de Cali (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Independiente Medellin — total shots (home)17.6
America de Cali — total shots (away)11.3

Shots on Target

Independiente Medellin — on target (home)5.7
America de Cali — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Independiente Medellin

Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04

America de Cali

Inside the box7.31
Outside the box6.38

Player Shots Independiente Medellin

B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots America de Cali

D. Vergara
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
J. Quintero
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
Luis Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target26%
Pipe Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target17%
T. Palacios
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Independiente Medellin xG (home)1.4
America de Cali xG (away)0.87

Average Possession

56.72% Possession 52.4%

Team Comparison Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali

80.91% Pass accuracy 81.27%
412.61 Passes per match 393.67
0 Goals prevented 0
11.06 Fouls committed 12.02
2.41 Goalkeeper saves 3
1.26 Offsides 1.86
10.46 Tackles per match 12.15

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali prediction analysis

Review Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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