Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima

Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Primera A 2025-05-16 00:30
Independiente Medellin
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
37%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Deportes Tolima
Away

Prediction Summary

1
53%
X
27%
2
20%
Under 2.5
63%
BTTS No
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Independiente Medellin (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.81
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate52%

Deportes Tolima (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.04
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate44%

Team Form last 5 matches

Independiente Medellin
WLDLD
Deportes Tolima
LLWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

85% +0.5 74%
48% +1.5 33%
30% +2.5 15%
0% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%
52% BTTS 44%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.

Independiente Medellin averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Deportes Tolima averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
53%
Draw
27%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS Yes
40%

Head-to-Head last 4

Sep 2025 Independiente Medellin(A) 3 - 2 Deportes Tolima Home
Jun 2025 Independiente Medellin 2 - 1 Deportes Tolima Home
Jun 2025 Independiente Medellin(A) 3 - 1 Deportes Tolima Home
May 2025 Independiente Medellin 0 - 1 Deportes Tolima Away

In the last 4 meetings, Independiente Medellin won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Independiente Medellin — unbeaten run (home)11
Independiente Medellin — scoring streak (home)2
Deportes Tolima — winless run (away)2
Deportes Tolima — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Independiente Medellin Win (1)53%
Draw (X)27%
Deportes Tolima Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

85% +0.5 74%
48% +1.5 33%
30% +2.5 15%
0% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

15% -0.5 26%
52% -1.5 67%
70% -2.5 85%
100% -3.5 96%
100% -4.5 100%

Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Independiente Medellin — scored (home)1.63
Independiente Medellin — conceded (home)0.81
Deportes Tolima — scored (away)1.26
Deportes Tolima — conceded (away)1.04
Model expected combined goals2.19

Both Teams To Score

Yes40%
No60%

Rate per Team

Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (home)52%
Deportes Tolima — BTTS matches (away)44%
Combined (simple average)48%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.593%
Under 4.57%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.565%
Under 7.535%
Over 8.552%
Under 8.548%
Over 9.539%
Under 9.561%
Over 10.530%
Under 10.570%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Independiente Medellin (home)

Corners for5.6
Corners against3.6

Deportes Tolima (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Independiente Medellin
12 7 4 3 7
Deportes Tolima
8 8 8 9 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Independiente Medellin (home)

For3.0

Deportes Tolima (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Independiente Medellin — total shots (home)17.6
Deportes Tolima — total shots (away)10.8

Shots on Target

Independiente Medellin — on target (home)5.7
Deportes Tolima — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Independiente Medellin

Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04

Deportes Tolima

Inside the box7.02
Outside the box5.72

Player Shots Independiente Medellin

B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Deportes Tolima

G. Lencina
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Gonzalez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. P. Torres Patino
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Parra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Independiente Medellin xG (home)1.4
Deportes Tolima xG (away)1.26

Average Possession

56.72% Possession 53.69%

Team Comparison Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima

80.91% Pass accuracy 81.54%
412.61 Passes per match 409.22
0 Goals prevented 0
11.06 Fouls committed 10.46
2.41 Goalkeeper saves 2.5
1.26 Offsides 1.42
10.46 Tackles per match 11.89

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima prediction analysis

Review Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top