Prediction Analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Envigado
Independiente Medellin vs Envigado prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-07-24
23:00
Independiente Medellin
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
27%
Confidence
High
Score
1-0
Envigado
Away
Prediction Summary
1
50%
X
31%
2
19%
Under 2.5
73%
BTTS No
68%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Independiente Medellin (Home)
Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.81
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate52%
Envigado (Away)
Goals scored / match0.95
Goals conceded / match1.15
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate35%
Team Form last 5 matches
Independiente Medellin
WLDLD
Envigado
WDLLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
85%
+0.5
45%
48%
+1.5
30%
30%
+2.5
15%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
52%
BTTS
35%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 27%. Model confidence is High.
Independiente Medellin averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Envigado averages 0.95 goals scored away.
Model Strength
73%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
50%
Draw
31%
Away Win
19%
Over 2.5
27%
BTTS Yes
32%
Head-to-Head last 2
Jul 2025
Independiente Medellin
3 - 4
Envigado
Away
Feb 2025
Independiente Medellin(A)
1 - 0
Envigado
Home
In the last 2 meetings, Independiente Medellin won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Independiente Medellin — unbeaten run (home)11
Independiente Medellin — scoring streak (home)2
Envigado — winless run (away)0
Envigado — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Independiente Medellin Win (1)50%
Draw (X)31%
Envigado Win (2)19%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
85%
+0.5
45%
48%
+1.5
30%
30%
+2.5
15%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
15%
-0.5
55%
52%
-1.5
70%
70%
-2.5
85%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
Independiente Medellin vs Envigado — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Independiente Medellin — scored (home)1.63
Independiente Medellin — conceded (home)0.81
Envigado — scored (away)0.95
Envigado — conceded (away)1.15
Model expected combined goals1.8
Both Teams To Score
Yes32%
No68%
Rate per Team
Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (home)52%
Envigado — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)43.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.561%
Under 7.539%
Over 8.551%
Under 8.549%
Over 9.541%
Under 9.559%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Independiente Medellin (home)
Corners for5.6
Corners against3.6
Envigado (away)
Corners for2.8
Corners against6.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Independiente Medellin
12
7
4
3
7
Envigado
3
4
12
6
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.5100%
Under 2.50%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Independiente Medellin (home)
For3.0
Envigado (away)
For4.2
Shots per Game
Independiente Medellin — total shots (home)17.6
Envigado — total shots (away)10.2
Shots on Target
Independiente Medellin — on target (home)5.7
Envigado — on target (away)2.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Independiente Medellin
Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04
Envigado
Inside the box5.23
Outside the box5.13
Player Shots Independiente Medellin
B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots Envigado
D. Pabón
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target50%
D. Arcila
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target19%
E. López
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
B. Garcés
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target8%
W. Hurtado
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target5%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Medellin xG (home)1.4
Envigado xG (away)1.15
Average Possession
56.72%
Possession
43.18%
Team Comparison Independiente Medellin vs Envigado
80.91%
Pass accuracy
74.7%
412.61
Passes per match
285.13
0
Goals prevented
0
11.06
Fouls committed
14.18
2.41
Goalkeeper saves
2.9
1.26
Offsides
1.74
10.46
Tackles per match
11.08
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Independiente Medellin vs Envigado prediction analysis
Review Independiente Medellin vs Envigado with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights