Prediction Analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-10-21
01:10
Independiente Medellin
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Santa Fe
Away
Prediction Summary
1
43%
X
27%
2
30%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Independiente Medellin (Home)
Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.81
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate52%
Santa Fe (Away)
Goals scored / match1.22
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate52%
Team Form last 5 matches
Independiente Medellin
WLDLD
Santa Fe
DWLLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
85%
+0.5
70%
48%
+1.5
33%
30%
+2.5
4%
0%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
52%
BTTS
52%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Medium.
Independiente Medellin averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Santa Fe averages 1.22 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
43%
Draw
27%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 4
Oct 2025
Independiente Medellin
1 - 1
Santa Fe
Draw
Jun 2025
Independiente Medellin
1 - 2
Santa Fe
Away
Jun 2025
Independiente Medellin(A)
0 - 0
Santa Fe
Draw
Apr 2025
Independiente Medellin(A)
2 - 1
Santa Fe
Home
In the last 4 meetings, Independiente Medellin won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Independiente Medellin — unbeaten run (home)11
Independiente Medellin — scoring streak (home)2
Santa Fe — winless run (away)0
Santa Fe — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Independiente Medellin Win (1)43%
Draw (X)27%
Santa Fe Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
85%
+0.5
70%
48%
+1.5
33%
30%
+2.5
4%
0%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
15%
-0.5
30%
52%
-1.5
67%
70%
-2.5
96%
100%
-3.5
96%
100%
-4.5
96%
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Independiente Medellin — scored (home)1.63
Independiente Medellin — conceded (home)0.81
Santa Fe — scored (away)1.22
Santa Fe — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.47
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (home)52%
Santa Fe — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)52%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.580%
Under 6.520%
Over 7.565%
Under 7.535%
Over 8.554%
Under 8.546%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Independiente Medellin (home)
Corners for5.6
Corners against3.6
Santa Fe (away)
Corners for4.1
Corners against5.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Independiente Medellin
12
7
4
3
7
Santa Fe
6
8
8
12
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.598%
Under 2.52%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.3
Yellow Cards per Team
Independiente Medellin (home)
For3.0
Santa Fe (away)
For3.4
Shots per Game
Independiente Medellin — total shots (home)17.6
Santa Fe — total shots (away)10.2
Shots on Target
Independiente Medellin — on target (home)5.7
Santa Fe — on target (away)3.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Independiente Medellin
Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04
Santa Fe
Inside the box7.04
Outside the box5.44
Player Shots Independiente Medellin
B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots Santa Fe
H. Rodallega
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target37%
H. Mosquera
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
Y. Perlaza
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
O. Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target5%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Medellin xG (home)1.4
Santa Fe xG (away)1.08
Average Possession
56.72%
Possession
48.19%
Team Comparison Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
80.91%
Pass accuracy
77.09%
412.61
Passes per match
334.04
0
Goals prevented
0
11.06
Fouls committed
11.52
2.41
Goalkeeper saves
3.46
1.26
Offsides
1.38
10.46
Tackles per match
10.54
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe prediction analysis
Review Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights