Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Internacional vs Gremio

Internacional vs Gremio prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Serie A 2025-09-21 20:30
Internacional
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Gremio
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
26%
2
27%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Internacional (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%

Gremio (Away)

Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.74
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Internacional
WLLDW
Gremio
WLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 68%
42% +1.5 32%
16% +2.5 16%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Internacional averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Gremio averages 1.21 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
26%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 Internacional 2 - 3 Gremio Away
Apr 2025 Internacional(A) 1 - 1 Gremio Draw
Oct 2024 Internacional 1 - 0 Gremio Home
Jun 2024 Internacional(A) 1 - 0 Gremio Home
Oct 2023 Internacional 3 - 2 Gremio Home

In the last 5 meetings, Internacional won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Internacional — unbeaten run (home)7
Internacional — scoring streak (home)3
Gremio — winless run (away)0
Gremio — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Internacional Win (1)47%
Draw (X)26%
Gremio Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 68%
42% +1.5 32%
16% +2.5 16%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 32%
58% -1.5 68%
84% -2.5 84%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Internacional vs Gremio — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Internacional — scored (home)1.42
Internacional — conceded (home)1.05
Gremio — scored (away)1.21
Gremio — conceded (away)1.74
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Internacional — BTTS matches (home)58%
Gremio — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)58%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.589%
Under 6.511%
Over 7.582%
Under 7.518%
Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Internacional (home)

Corners for5.8
Corners against3.6

Gremio (away)

Corners for3.7
Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Internacional
8 5 7 13 6
Gremio
8 8 8 10 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Internacional (home)

For2.2

Gremio (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Internacional — total shots (home)16.7
Gremio — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

Internacional — on target (home)5.8
Gremio — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Internacional

Inside the box8.08
Outside the box5.5

Gremio

Inside the box7.21
Outside the box5.03

Player Shots Internacional

J. Carbonero
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target13%
Alan Patrick
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target13%
Ricardo Mathias
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target23%
Gustavo Prado
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%
Tabata
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Gremio

Carlos Vinícius
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
M. Braithwaite
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target17%
F. Amuzu
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
André Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
M. Arezo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Internacional xG (home)1.4
Gremio xG (away)1.29

Average Possession

51.08% Possession 45.16%

Team Comparison Internacional vs Gremio

82.63% Pass accuracy 82.32%
429.03 Passes per match 379.66
-0.13 Goals prevented 0.22
14.89 Fouls committed 13.37
2.61 Goalkeeper saves 3.41
1.78 Offsides 1.08
18.39 Tackles per match 17.37

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Internacional vs Gremio prediction analysis

Review Internacional vs Gremio with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top